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Weekly Experts' Forecast: GU, EU and UJ (20110321 -25)

Posted by Nelayan Forex On 3/20/2011 06:51:00 PM



GBP/USD Comments:
• Anna Coulling: Still looking positive & we should see some further upside momentum taking cable to 1.63 area where it may struggle once again.
• ecPulse.com: 1.5960 should be breached to confirm 1 month and 1 quarter expectations
• Ilian Yotov: Risk aversion could extend further the recent price correction in the GBP/USD pair.
• Mohammed Isah: We hold on to our sideways consolidation range on GBP as it continues to be trapped between the 1.6342 and the 1.5964 level. We are bullish in one to three months.
• Dr. Sivaraman: very big trend reversal move is expected
• Yohay Elam: The recent employment data helps the pound, but the general weakness of the economy is likely to continue weighing on cable
EUR/USD Comments:
• Anna Coulling: Still clinging to 1.40 region & may push higher towards the 1.4282 high of mid November but could struggle thereafter.
• ecPulse.com: Weekly close above 1.4075 would change 1 quarter trend
• Ilian Yotov: Geo-political risk is driving currency exchange rates. Risk aversion is hurting the EUR and if this is coupled with a lack of agreement on "comprehensive solutions" to the EU debt crisis, the EUR could come under additional pressure.
• Mohammed Isah: With strength seen we believe the coming weak should witness more strength.In one to three months we are bullish on the pair.
• Dr. Sivaraman: Big trend reversal move is expected
• Yohay Elam: While the weakness of the dollar still boosts EUR/USD, the upcoming eruption of another round of the debt crisis towards April is likely to hurt the pair, especially after the EU Summit decision fell short of providing a real safety net
USD/JPY Comments:
• Anna Coulling: Earthquake & tsunami resulted in dramatically Yen - similar to post Kobe - but we should see signs of weakening as BOJ (& others) coordinate to inject some stability.
• ecPulse.com: 82.55 should be breached to confirm 1 month and 1 quarter expectations
• Ilian Yotov: Short-term patience could get rewarded with longer-term gains when the risk aversion dust settles. The potential for a BOJ intervention should not be excluded and could assist the USD in forming a new base, following new multi-year lows for the USD/JPY pair.
• Mohammed Isah: Resumed its long term weakness but now faces corrective recovery. We still retain our long term bearish call in one to three months on the USDJPY
• Dr. Sivaraman: bullish moves may become visible
• Yohay Elam: Speculation of repatriation flows following the horrific earthquake and tsunami is likely to give way to a massive international intervention to weaken the yen and help the troubled Japanese economy.

Keys:
• Bearish: Belief that a particular currency is about to fall in value; understood as a general pessimistic trend about the state of that given currency.
• Bullish: Belief that a particular currency is about to rise in value; understood as a general optimism about the state of that given currency.
• Sideways: A sideways trend manifests when the volume of a currency pair bought and the volume of the same pair sold at a particular price are in balance or nearly in balance.

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