my sincere appreciation to all readers ofNelayan Forex Traderlog
Thank You!
warmest regards:
nelayan forex
Thank You!
warmest regards:
nelayan forex
my sincere appreciation to all readers of
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Selamat Meraikan Hari Kemerdekaan
ke-54
31.08.1957 - 31.08.2011
"1 Malaysia, Transformasi Berjaya, Rakyat Sejahtera"
Rahmatilah negara kami ini, Ya ALLAH!
Amin Ya Rabbal Alamin
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Kemaafan Diberi, Keampunan DipintaSELAMAT HARI RAYA AIDILFITRI
1 Syawal 1432H/ 30 Ogos 2011M
Semoga ALLAH swt merahmati kita semua
Amin Ya Rabbal Alamin
IKHLAS DARI:
nelayan forex
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How to Conduct a Trading Strategy Back Test
By: Casey Stubbs of Winners Edge Trading
___________________________________________
I almost tried to hide the title of this article or change it to something like “How to Make 637 Pips on a Slow Day” to trick traders into reading it. Why would I do that? Because this is a boring subject that most traders will run from, but oh how they need it. Conducting proper back testing can change your forex trading forever. Before you leave I will let you in on a secret I am going to have complete back test and I am going to share the strategy so this is going to have a ton of good stuff.
This article is going to discuss how to do a back test to determine if a strategy is profitable before you start to trade it. The key word is BEFORE you trade it. The problem with most traders I know is that they usually start trading with no, testing at all heck they don’t even have a plan or a strategy. I am not trying to be cruel here but I deal with traders every day and I am asking them these key questions to try to find out where they are going wrong.
So this post is much needed and I hope that you heed the words that have been written so that you may learn and be profitable.
There are some benefits to back testing a strategy before trading. The first benefit is that you will know ahead of time if a strategy actually works and if you are wasting your time or not even before you start trading live. Another great reason to back test is that you learn the strategy very well before you actually start to trade, believe me after a couple hours of straight back testing you will know you strategy inside and out. Back testing a trading strategy also allows you to test different variables with your strategy to see if changing something will increase your profits. The two small drawbacks to back testing are that the results cannot be guaranteed in the future so if you find a good one your results might not be what you actually expect when you start to trade. The other drawback is that to do it right it takes a lot of time and hard work but that can be a benefit as well.
Steps To Start Back Testing
The first thing you need even before you start back testing is a forex trading strategy. I have include a link to for your convenience to a Forex trading strategy website in case you need a strategy to test. Once you have your strategy you have to make sure that you understand all of the entry requirements, money management, exit requirements, and all of the indicators you will need for this strategy.
Once you fully understand the strategy you need to choose a pair that you are going to test on for my example I am going test on the Aud/Usd. You also have to determine how far back you are going to test. I recommend testing it a minimum of 2 months but you should probably do more.
For the example I am going to test I am going to test for one month.
Here is the my strategy for this example:
Indicators Used
1 Hr Chart
7 and 27 Simple Moving Average
Macd 8 17 9
Rsi 14
Entry Requirements
Enter on a Cross of the 7 and 27 Go in the direction of the cross.
Filters to keep us out of bad Trades
Also RSI Must be above 50 pointing up for a long and below 50 pointing down for a short.
If RSI is above 65 no trade on a long
If RSI is below 35 no trade on a short
Macd above 0 for a long and below 0 for a short.
Wait for the candle to close before entry.
If the Entry candle is larger than +50 no trade
Stops Loss And Take Profit Information
Stop loss 3 pips above previous candle to the entry
Move Stop to +30 when the price gets to +50
Trail Stop by 27 MA candle after the price gets past +30
Money Management
Risk 2% of account on each trade
By: Casey Stubbs of Winners Edge Trading
___________________________________________
I almost tried to hide the title of this article or change it to something like “How to Make 637 Pips on a Slow Day” to trick traders into reading it. Why would I do that? Because this is a boring subject that most traders will run from, but oh how they need it. Conducting proper back testing can change your forex trading forever. Before you leave I will let you in on a secret I am going to have complete back test and I am going to share the strategy so this is going to have a ton of good stuff.
This article is going to discuss how to do a back test to determine if a strategy is profitable before you start to trade it. The key word is BEFORE you trade it. The problem with most traders I know is that they usually start trading with no, testing at all heck they don’t even have a plan or a strategy. I am not trying to be cruel here but I deal with traders every day and I am asking them these key questions to try to find out where they are going wrong.
So this post is much needed and I hope that you heed the words that have been written so that you may learn and be profitable.
There are some benefits to back testing a strategy before trading. The first benefit is that you will know ahead of time if a strategy actually works and if you are wasting your time or not even before you start trading live. Another great reason to back test is that you learn the strategy very well before you actually start to trade, believe me after a couple hours of straight back testing you will know you strategy inside and out. Back testing a trading strategy also allows you to test different variables with your strategy to see if changing something will increase your profits. The two small drawbacks to back testing are that the results cannot be guaranteed in the future so if you find a good one your results might not be what you actually expect when you start to trade. The other drawback is that to do it right it takes a lot of time and hard work but that can be a benefit as well.
Steps To Start Back Testing
The first thing you need even before you start back testing is a forex trading strategy. I have include a link to for your convenience to a Forex trading strategy website in case you need a strategy to test. Once you have your strategy you have to make sure that you understand all of the entry requirements, money management, exit requirements, and all of the indicators you will need for this strategy.
Once you fully understand the strategy you need to choose a pair that you are going to test on for my example I am going test on the Aud/Usd. You also have to determine how far back you are going to test. I recommend testing it a minimum of 2 months but you should probably do more.
For the example I am going to test I am going to test for one month.
Here is the my strategy for this example:
Indicators Used
1 Hr Chart
7 and 27 Simple Moving Average
Macd 8 17 9
Rsi 14
Entry Requirements
Enter on a Cross of the 7 and 27 Go in the direction of the cross.
Filters to keep us out of bad Trades
Also RSI Must be above 50 pointing up for a long and below 50 pointing down for a short.
If RSI is above 65 no trade on a long
If RSI is below 35 no trade on a short
Macd above 0 for a long and below 0 for a short.
Wait for the candle to close before entry.
If the Entry candle is larger than +50 no trade
Stops Loss And Take Profit Information
Stop loss 3 pips above previous candle to the entry
Move Stop to +30 when the price gets to +50
Trail Stop by 27 MA candle after the price gets past +30
Money Management
I know I am going into a lot of detail here I didnt have to include the strategy but I want to go above and beyond the call of duty and give you some great information that will change your trading forever.
Chart One the area between the green lines indicate exactly 30 days of time. From May 17 to June 17th.
Chart Two Next I am going to look at all the times I think the price is going to trigger a trade and mark them on the chart.
Now we are almost ready to start the back test but before we do that we need to create a spreadsheet that will have all of the data we record from the backtest.
Here is an example of the first trade I recorded.
Now I go through and do the same thing with each trade. After I have completed the entire back test and log the results I look at the numbers in the speadsheet and make my observations of the strategy.
Here is a graph of the performance.
So now that we see the strategy is a winner, now it is time to fine tune it to make it better. The strategy was profitable but if I made some small adjustments it could be much better. If I add one or two more winning trades to the mix or get some more pips per trade, that would be a large increase in profit over time.
So now back to the drawing board I am going to follow the same rules and make a few changes to see if I can improve the strategy.
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Notes:
This is a very good & informative article by Casey Stubbs. Trading Strategy Back Test is critically important for traders in order for them to fully understand their own strategy "DNA".
InstaForex – Best Broker in Asia 2011
InstaForex Company has been called the best broker of Asia triply
Worldwide known InstaForex Company has been awarded with the Best Broker in Asia title for the third time by the «World Finance Awards» launched by the British publication World Finance. Victory in this prestigious nomination comes as one more approval of the company’s positive development dynamics. The company’s management made the right choice selecting the Asian region for implementing its strategic ideas. Impressive InstaForex achievements in Asia prompted further development and creation of well-known brand which is in the limelight of Forex currency market as well as among the financial market members.
Presently, Asia involves the majority of direct sales offices and company’s divisions. In many of them educational courses and seminars are run on a permanent basis. Having carried out accurate market researches, InstaForex experts have hammered out additional services for the Asian traders. Aside from that, the second year straight a great interest of Forex society is fueled by a distinguished “Miss InstaForex Asia” contest. All this has become possible due to a competent management policy and well-skilled approach to each activity aspect.
Getting its work on the road, the company made a stake on high-grade services and their availability for traders with any capital. Amid this, its work standards are expanding permanently. To this day, InstaForex is one of the leaders of the Asian as well as of the global brokerage services market. The company offers maximally full range of trading instruments, wide choice of different options, various educational projects and unique bonus programs. In other words, InstaForex allows no matter a newcomer or a real Forex guru to find the most suitable terms of trading and extra opportunities. The broker always follows the latest trends, changes for the better and keeps on investing in people and technologies in order to meet expectations of traders around the globe. InstaForex turned out to be a reliable partner already for more than 350 thousands of traders from 80 countries. The number of representative branches also rises – expanding geographically the company advances the quality and efficiency of serving the international clients.
InstaForex team thanks the award organizer – the international financial magazine “World Finance” and every client for giving a high assessment of the company’s work. InstaForex hopes to solidify its positions in Asia and all over the world going forward for the benefit of its clients and extending its services line.
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The above-mentioned article has been e-mailed to Nelayan Forex's associate on 11 Aug, 2011.
Artikel di bawah dipetik daripada Winners Edge Trading oleh Casey Stubbs. Sebuah nukilan yang menarik dan mengujakan:
______________________________________________________________
______________________________________________________________
This is an encouragement post to the readers of Winners Edge Trading. Please share this message with your friends that trade by sharing on twitter and facebook and even forwarding via email. I get messages everyday about traders trying to make it in trading. I started this blog to help myself improve my trading and it has done that and much more. This blog has helped me become a better trader and also has helped many others.
I am going to start out by saying YES! You can be a profitable trader. You have what it takes and you can make enough money to make a living by trading. If you don’t believe that then maybe you should stop reading right now. However since you are here I feel like in your heart you have some hope that you can accomplish your dreams of becoming a trader. I am a dreamer and I always go after my dreams and I encourage you to do the same.
As a matter of fact all success starts with a thought and a dream, but is only achieved by those that go after it, with all of their hearts. That takes risk, a risk of failure and a risk of being laughed at and rejected by friends and those that you love. The reason people put down those with dreams is because they were afraid to take the risk to go after their dream so they put down others. Perhaps they tried to live their dream and they ran into obstacles and gave up along the way. Everyone has a dream in their heart but only a few have the courage to live it, can you relate to me here?
Now back to trading….
Sorry for the side trail but I get heart broken when I run into different types of traders, that have fallen along the way that one time had a dream but now they are angry and resentful. Some even deny reality and say that it is impossible to make it in trading. I am here to encourage you and say yes you can do it!
Here are 3 tips that will help you along in your journey to become a successful trader:
1.Have a Heart and Passion to live your Dream!
Trading is not easy or for the faint of heart, you will experience pain along the way. That pain will teach you if you let it. Embrace the pain of failure and learn from it. Many heartless traders experience the pain and they run from it or quit. If you have a heart you will not quit but you will keep going. If you don’t have a heart that is willing to take a risk or if you are being pushed back by fear. Then stir yourself up by verbally declaring your dream and also writing it down on paper and how you are going to achieve it.
2.Have written plan and follow it
If you follow step one then you will be passionate about your trading and that passion will cause you to do what is necessary to achieve your goals. First you need to have a plan and most traders I talk to do not even do the first step. If that is you, then stop right now and write a trading plan, don’t even finish this article! Do not take another trade until the plan is finished and you have a trading friend check it out. The next part of tip 2 is to follow your plan to fullness. What good is a trading plan if you do not follow it? The reason following a plan is so important is because it helps you to identify the areas where you need to work, the areas of your strategy that need to be tweaked. Time to be brutally honest with yourself, how will you learn if you do not know what is the problem. Following your plan will help you to determine what is wrong and how to fix it.
3.Never give Up
You will feel like giving up along the way. Learning to be a successful trader is a hard journey, at least it was for me I think every person is different. Learning the techniques and strategies is the easy part but being a student of trading and learning the discipline of trading is what takes time to master. It was hard for me because I refused to follow my plan and stick with what I knew to be true. Knowing the right thing and doing the right thing are two different things.
In summary I hope this article has been a source of inspiration to you. My goal in writing this is to encourage you to go for it. Trading is not a get rich quick scheme because it is just like everything else in life, you have to want it and work for it to achieve success. Please share your thoughts about this article. If you want to help a struggling trader share this article via twitter or facebook or email.
- Casey Stubbs -
I am going to start out by saying YES! You can be a profitable trader. You have what it takes and you can make enough money to make a living by trading. If you don’t believe that then maybe you should stop reading right now. However since you are here I feel like in your heart you have some hope that you can accomplish your dreams of becoming a trader. I am a dreamer and I always go after my dreams and I encourage you to do the same.
As a matter of fact all success starts with a thought and a dream, but is only achieved by those that go after it, with all of their hearts. That takes risk, a risk of failure and a risk of being laughed at and rejected by friends and those that you love. The reason people put down those with dreams is because they were afraid to take the risk to go after their dream so they put down others. Perhaps they tried to live their dream and they ran into obstacles and gave up along the way. Everyone has a dream in their heart but only a few have the courage to live it, can you relate to me here?
Now back to trading….
Sorry for the side trail but I get heart broken when I run into different types of traders, that have fallen along the way that one time had a dream but now they are angry and resentful. Some even deny reality and say that it is impossible to make it in trading. I am here to encourage you and say yes you can do it!
Here are 3 tips that will help you along in your journey to become a successful trader:
1.Have a Heart and Passion to live your Dream!
Trading is not easy or for the faint of heart, you will experience pain along the way. That pain will teach you if you let it. Embrace the pain of failure and learn from it. Many heartless traders experience the pain and they run from it or quit. If you have a heart you will not quit but you will keep going. If you don’t have a heart that is willing to take a risk or if you are being pushed back by fear. Then stir yourself up by verbally declaring your dream and also writing it down on paper and how you are going to achieve it.
2.Have written plan and follow it
If you follow step one then you will be passionate about your trading and that passion will cause you to do what is necessary to achieve your goals. First you need to have a plan and most traders I talk to do not even do the first step. If that is you, then stop right now and write a trading plan, don’t even finish this article! Do not take another trade until the plan is finished and you have a trading friend check it out. The next part of tip 2 is to follow your plan to fullness. What good is a trading plan if you do not follow it? The reason following a plan is so important is because it helps you to identify the areas where you need to work, the areas of your strategy that need to be tweaked. Time to be brutally honest with yourself, how will you learn if you do not know what is the problem. Following your plan will help you to determine what is wrong and how to fix it.
3.Never give Up
You will feel like giving up along the way. Learning to be a successful trader is a hard journey, at least it was for me I think every person is different. Learning the techniques and strategies is the easy part but being a student of trading and learning the discipline of trading is what takes time to master. It was hard for me because I refused to follow my plan and stick with what I knew to be true. Knowing the right thing and doing the right thing are two different things.
In summary I hope this article has been a source of inspiration to you. My goal in writing this is to encourage you to go for it. Trading is not a get rich quick scheme because it is just like everything else in life, you have to want it and work for it to achieve success. Please share your thoughts about this article. If you want to help a struggling trader share this article via twitter or facebook or email.
- Casey Stubbs -
SALAM RAMADHAN 1432H/ 2011Mbuat semua muslimin & muslimat di seluruh dunia
sesungguhnya kedatangan bulan mulia yang dirindui ini
membawa seribu rahmat dan nikmat buat mereka yang beriman dan bertaqwa
mohon maaf di atas segala kesalahan & keterlanjuran
semoga keikhlasan antara kita menjadi asbab redha Illahi buat kita
Amin wa InsyaALLAH
