Humbly Present: INSTAFOREX WORLD

Posted by Nelayan Forex On April - 23 - 2013

Your dedicated compact linkage page to InstaForex - the best broker in Asia!

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Wealth Management Di Dalam Perdagangan Forex..

Posted by Nelayan Forex On 3/26/2011 05:33:00 PM 0 comments

" Bro.. aku nampak ada satu angle yang kita traders selalu terlepas pandang. Aku rasa aku la ni mungkin di junction tu. Kebanyakan kita HANYA tertumpu pada trading technique & Money Management. So, prestasi ok ie. duit masuk, tapi wealth tak bertambah. Ringkasnya, boleh la dikatakan mewah, tapi tak kaya! Nampaknya selain trading technique & Money Management, aspek Wealth Management perlu dikuasai juga. Pandangan aku, kalu nak jadi full-timer, benda tu kena ada. Gamaknya, sebab tu ramai traders boleh buat duit, tapi tak mampu jadikan trading sebagai sole income source. Ringkasnya, between amateur trader (minimum skill acquired: trading technique) vs freelance trader (additional skill acquired: Money Management) vs pro trader (extra skill acquired: Wealth Management)."

" Apa aku nak respon pada kawan aku punya idea ni? Aku pun masih di tahap belajar."

" Takpe. Dalam belajar tak boleh ada boundaries ilmu. Kalu tak, kita bukan belajar. Sebab tu masa di kuliah, pensyarah kata kalu kita sekadar tahu apa yang diajar dalam kuliah & notanya, paling tinggi hanya boleh dapat B. Ertinya, nak cemerlang, kena tahu lebih daripada skop silibus paper tu. Sebab tu wujudnya library. Gini le bro, cuba tengok orang buat MLM ataupun jual insurance. Nape hanya 5% je yang berjaya cemerlang? Main golf pun gitu, hanya 5% je yang mampu jadi Pro. Yang lain tu berjaya juga, tapi tak sampai level tu walau buat benda yang sama.."


Demikian di atas. Ia antara text pesanan ringkas antara aku dan sahabatku, Saudagar Lilin Jepun. Semoga perkongsian ini mampu memberi serba-sedikit input untuk kita sama-sama terus bermuhasabah diri. Pandangan di atas bukanlah bersifat mutlak, justeru tertakluk kepada persepsi dan perspektif diri masing-masing.

PadaNya kita berserah diri.. WALLAHu A'lam.


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Weekly Experts' Forecast: GU, EU, UJ and UChf (20110328 -0401)

Posted by Nelayan Forex On 3/26/2011 01:50:00 PM 0 comments





GBP/USD Comments:
• Anna Coulling: Despite pullback sterling still remains bullish as markets reward UK fiscal policy. Expect to see 1.64 tested again.
• ecPulse.com: 1.5960 should hold to keep 1 month expectation valid while we need a weekly close above 1.6300 to change 1 quarter trend expectation
• Ilian Yotov: Risk aversion and lessened expectations of a BOE rate hike could extend further the recent price correction in the GBP/USD pair.
• Dr. Sivaraman: Very volatile moves may be seen
• Yohay Elam: There are good reasons why the members of the MPC are still reluctant to raise the rates, despite soaring inflation. The economy is weak. The pound is likely to continue shaking, and then drop.
• Mohammed Isah: GBPUSD is still bullish long term but continues to weaken within its broader sideways range. Within one to three months, we have a bullish bias on the pair.
EUR/USD Comments:
• Anna Coulling: The short term technical picture for the eur/usd remains mildly bullish although could be getting tired at this level. Dollar shorts now at an extreme which could be an important signal for a reversal. Pair likely to struggle anywhere above 1.43
• ecPulse.com: Breaching 1.3950 could change 1 week outlook while breaching 1.3860 could change 1 month and 1 quarter expectations
• Valeria Bednarik: As per now, bullish long term trend in Euro remains intact despite sovereign debt woes. Gains could extend towards 1.45 area in the upcoming weeks, before a reversal can come into play.
• Ilian Yotov: No surprise- Portugal looks more and more like the next hat-in-hand bailout candidate as the prime minister resigns and the country moves closer to the brink of a political and financial crisis. EU Drama Part 3, anyone?
• Dr. Sivaraman: Very volatile moves may be seen
• Yohay Elam: With the fall of the Portuguese government and the upcoming bailout, and the troubles with Ireland and with the expansion of the bailout fund, EUR/USD is looking downwards.
• Mohammed Isah: Although the pair is now hesitating following its test of the 1.4248 level, broader bias remains higher as long as it trades within its bullish channel. Our overall outlook remains bullish in one to three months.
USD/JPY Comments:
• Anna Coulling: Provided there is no BOJ or other bank intervention picture remains bearish. Any move below 80.36 will open the way to further downwards pressure.
• ecPulse.com: 78.60 should hold to keep our expectations valid
• Ilian Yotov: The potential for more G7 interventions should not be excluded and could assist the USD in forming a new base above the historic post WWII lows for the USD/JPY pair.
• Dr. Sivaraman: Swing and rise moves may be seen
• Yohay Elam: The Japanese economy was struggling also before the earthquake and the damage is severe. Together with the international effort to weaken the yen and the bounce back up, Dollar/Yen has room to rise.
• Mohammed Isah: The pair remains biased to the downside long term but now faces a recovery higher following its recent weakness. We retain our long term bearish call in three months.
USD/CHF Comments:
• Anna Coulling: Swiss franc still seen as safe haven - technical picture still bearish.
• ecPulse.com: 0.8515 should hold to keep 1 quarter expectation valid
• Valeria Bednarik: Upside corrective movements are still seen quite limited in the cross. Technical confirmations above 0.93 are needed to talk about a trend botton and probable bullish continuation
• Ilian Yotov: The multi-year bullish trend of the CHF is very strong and could accelerate on further risk aversion.
• Dr. Sivaraman: Swing and rise moves may be seen
• Yohay Elam: The ultimate safe haven currency continues to have all the reasons to rise, as Mid-East tensions are huge. Nevertheless, in the long term, the excessive strength might give way to a correction.
• Mohammed Isah: Despite its attempt at recovering higher, USDCHF continues to retain its long term bearish structure. We are bearish on the pair in one to three months.
Keys:
• Bearish: Belief that a particular currency is about to fall in value; understood as a general pessimistic trend about the state of that given currency.
• Bullish: Belief that a particular currency is about to rise in value; understood as a general optimism about the state of that given currency.
• Sideways: A sideways trend manifests when the volume of a currency pair bought and the volume of the same pair sold at a particular price are in balance or nearly in balance.

Weekly Currency Index and Heat Map Review: 20110321 - 25

Posted by Nelayan Forex On 3/26/2011 01:42:00 PM 0 comments
Currency Index Review
The currency index represents the evolution of a currency relative to the entire forex. The index is the average of one currency compared to others. The chart representation makes it easy to view trends by currency.

Effective Review Period: 15 March 2011 - 25 March 2011
Currencies: USD compared to EUR, GBP & JPY

Currency Heat Map Review
The objective of the Currency Heat Map is to provide a graphical presentation on the relative strengths of major currencies relative to others.

Weekly Experts' Forecast: GU, EU and UJ (20110321 -25)

Posted by Nelayan Forex On 3/20/2011 06:51:00 PM 0 comments



GBP/USD Comments:
• Anna Coulling: Still looking positive & we should see some further upside momentum taking cable to 1.63 area where it may struggle once again.
• ecPulse.com: 1.5960 should be breached to confirm 1 month and 1 quarter expectations
• Ilian Yotov: Risk aversion could extend further the recent price correction in the GBP/USD pair.
• Mohammed Isah: We hold on to our sideways consolidation range on GBP as it continues to be trapped between the 1.6342 and the 1.5964 level. We are bullish in one to three months.
• Dr. Sivaraman: very big trend reversal move is expected
• Yohay Elam: The recent employment data helps the pound, but the general weakness of the economy is likely to continue weighing on cable
EUR/USD Comments:
• Anna Coulling: Still clinging to 1.40 region & may push higher towards the 1.4282 high of mid November but could struggle thereafter.
• ecPulse.com: Weekly close above 1.4075 would change 1 quarter trend
• Ilian Yotov: Geo-political risk is driving currency exchange rates. Risk aversion is hurting the EUR and if this is coupled with a lack of agreement on "comprehensive solutions" to the EU debt crisis, the EUR could come under additional pressure.
• Mohammed Isah: With strength seen we believe the coming weak should witness more strength.In one to three months we are bullish on the pair.
• Dr. Sivaraman: Big trend reversal move is expected
• Yohay Elam: While the weakness of the dollar still boosts EUR/USD, the upcoming eruption of another round of the debt crisis towards April is likely to hurt the pair, especially after the EU Summit decision fell short of providing a real safety net
USD/JPY Comments:
• Anna Coulling: Earthquake & tsunami resulted in dramatically Yen - similar to post Kobe - but we should see signs of weakening as BOJ (& others) coordinate to inject some stability.
• ecPulse.com: 82.55 should be breached to confirm 1 month and 1 quarter expectations
• Ilian Yotov: Short-term patience could get rewarded with longer-term gains when the risk aversion dust settles. The potential for a BOJ intervention should not be excluded and could assist the USD in forming a new base, following new multi-year lows for the USD/JPY pair.
• Mohammed Isah: Resumed its long term weakness but now faces corrective recovery. We still retain our long term bearish call in one to three months on the USDJPY
• Dr. Sivaraman: bullish moves may become visible
• Yohay Elam: Speculation of repatriation flows following the horrific earthquake and tsunami is likely to give way to a massive international intervention to weaken the yen and help the troubled Japanese economy.

Keys:
• Bearish: Belief that a particular currency is about to fall in value; understood as a general pessimistic trend about the state of that given currency.
• Bullish: Belief that a particular currency is about to rise in value; understood as a general optimism about the state of that given currency.
• Sideways: A sideways trend manifests when the volume of a currency pair bought and the volume of the same pair sold at a particular price are in balance or nearly in balance.

Weekly Currency Index and Heat Map Review: 20110314 - 18

Posted by Nelayan Forex On 3/20/2011 06:39:00 PM 0 comments
Currency Index Review
The currency index represents the evolution of a currency relative to the entire forex. The index is the average of one currency compared to others. The chart representation makes it easy to view trends by currency.


Effective Review Period: 8 March 2011 - 18 March 2011
Currencies: USD compared to EUR, GBP & JPY

Currency Heat Map Review
The objective of the Currency Heat Map is to provide a graphical presentation on the relative strengths of major currencies relative to others.

News Front: The Yen's Story..

Posted by Nelayan Forex On 3/18/2011 02:12:00 PM 0 comments

Friday, the yen weakened against other major currencies in Asian trading after finance ministers and central bank governors from the Group of Seven agreed to intervene jointly in the foreign exchange markets for the first time in more than a decade to stabilize the yen.

The G7 nations are the United States, Japan, Germany, Britain, France, Italy and Canada.

Today's joint agreement by the G7 officials came in response to the yen's surge to record level against the dollar this week.

"In response to recent movements in the exchange rate of the yen associated with the tragic events in Japan, and at the request of the Japanese authorities, the authorities of the United States, the United Kingdom, Canada, and the European Central Bank will join with Japan, on March 18, in concerted intervention in exchange markets," the G7 statement said.

"We express our solidarity with the Japanese people in these difficult times, our readiness to provided needed cooperation and our confidence in the resilience of the Japanese economy and financial sector," the G7 statement said.

The yen has climbed steadily since last week's earthquake and tsunami as global investors closed long positions in higher-yielding and riskier assets, funded by cheap borrowing in the Japanese currency.

Expectations that Japanese companies will repatriate their overseas assets to help cover disaster-related costs also contributed to the yen's strength.

In an effort to calm markets and to reassure investors, the Bank of Japan poured cash into the financial system this week to stabilize money markets. The central bank doubled its asset-purchase fund to 10 trillion yen on March 14, pledging to step up purchases of securities including government debt, exchange-traded funds and real-estate investment trusts.

Japanese Finance Minister Yoshihiko Noda said this morning that the dollar's plunge to an all-time low around the 76 level against the yen was a factor taken into account in Japan's decision to seek cooperation in intervention in the currency markets from its Group of Seven counterparts.

Noda also said Japan's Ministry of Finance started intervention at 9 am Tokyo time and each other central banks would intervene in their own timezones.

Early in Asia yesterday, the yen surged up to a record high against the U.S. dollar, 2-year high against the pound and the Canadian dollar and new multi-month highs against the euro, franc, Aussie and the NZ dollar. But the yen came off from highs in late Asian trade and almost moved sideways in the European and U.S. sessions.

The yen's plunge today took it to a 2-week low against the euro and multi-day lows against the rest of majors. Thus far, the yen lost 7.3 percent against the greenback, 8.6 percent against the euro, 6.6 percent against the franc, 8 percent against the pound and the Canadian dollar and 9 percent against the Australian and New Zealand dollars.

Today's coordinated intervention in international currency markets marked the first by the G-7 countries since 2000, when they intervened in an effort to strengthen the euro.

Japan had called on the group to issue a statement in October 2008, when the global financial crisis drove the yen near a 13-year high against the dollar. They responded by expressing concern about "excessive" volatility, stopping short of indicating any intervention.

However, the Japanese government stepped into currency markets on September 15, 2010 after the yen rose to a 15-year high against the dollar.

The yen declined against the U.S. dollar in Asian deals. The yen is currently trading at a 3-day low of 81.86 against the dollar. If the yen weakens further, it may likely target the 83.0 level. The dollar-yen pair closed yesterday's trading at 78.92.

During Asian deals, the yen dropped to a 2-week low of 115.30 against the euro. The next downside target level for the yen is seen at 116.0. At yesterday's close, the euro-yen pair was quoted at 110.66.

The yen fell to near a 1-year low of 90.34 against the Swiss franc in the Asian session. On the downside, 91.1 is seen as the next target level for the Japanese currency. The franc-yen pair was worth 87.87 at yesterday's close.

The yen also slipped to a 3-day low of 132.54 against the pound and 83.46 against the Canadian dollar in Asian trading. If the yen slides further, it may target 135.3 against the pound and 85.2 against the loonie. The pound-yen and the loonie-yen pairs were worth 127.35 and 80.11, respectively at yesterday's close.

The yen edged down to a 3-day low of 81.43 against the Australian dollar in the Asian session. On the downside, 82.0 is seen as the next target level for the Japanese currency. At yesterday's close, the aussie-yen pair was quoted at 77.40.

Against the New Zealand dollar, the yen declined to a 3-day low of 59.78. This may be compared to yesterday's close of 56.65. The next downside target level for the yen is seen at 60.5.

Sentiment across Asian markets also received a boost today amid reports that a power cable has now reached reactor no. 2 of the troubled Fukushima Daiichi nuclear plant in Japan.

Japan's Nikkei 225 index rose 3 percent, Hong Kong's Hang Seng climbed 0.7 percent, China's Shangai composite index soared 0.6 percent, New Zealand's NZX 50 index gained 0.3 percent, South Korea's Kospi advanced 1 percent, Taiwan's main index edged up 1.3 percent, Australia's S&P 200 index advanced 1.3 percent and the All Ordinaries index was 1.4 percent higher.

In the upcoming European session, German PPI, U.K. public finances data and Swiss import and export prices - all for February, Eurozone current account and trade balance for January are slated for release.

At 7 am ET, Canada's CPI for February is expected.

News Front: A RM517b Nightmare

Posted by Nelayan Forex On 3/15/2011 01:43:00 PM 0 comments
New Straits Times
15th March, 2011
Headline:
-------------------

FUKUSHIMA: Japan scrambled to avert a meltdown at a stricken nuclear plant yesterday after a hydrogen explosion at one reactor and exposure of fuel rods at another, just days after a devastating earthquake and tsunami that killed at least 10,000 people.

Roads and rail, power and ports have been crippled across much of Japan’s northeast and estimates of the cost of the multiple disasters have leapt to as much as US$170 billion (RM517 billion).

Analysts said the economy could even tip back into recession. Japanese stocks closed down more than 7.5 per cent, wiping US$287 billion off market capitalisation in the biggest fall since the height of the global financial crisis in 2008.

Rescue workers combed the tsunami battered region north of Tokyo for survivors and struggled to care for millions of people without power and water in what Prime Minister Naoto Kan has dubbed his country’s worst crisis since World War 2.

Officials say at least 10,000 people were likely killed in the 8.9-magnitude earthquake and tsunami that followed it. Kyodo news agency reported that 2,000 bodies had been found yesterday in two coastal towns alone.

“It’s a scene from hell, absolutely nightmarish,” said Patrick Fuller of the International Red Cross Federation from the town of Otsuchi.

“The situation here is just beyond belief, almost everything has been flattened. The government is saying that 9,500 people, more than half of the population, could have died and I do fear the worst.” The big fear at the Fukushima nuclear complex, 240km north of Tokyo, is of a major radiation leak.

Jiji news agency said fuel rods at the No. 2 reactor had been entirely exposed and a fuel rod meltdown could not be ruled out.

The plant operator confirmed there was little water left in the reactor.

The explosion happened at the No. 3 reactor, two days after a blast at the No. 1 reactor.

A meltdown raises the risk of damage to the reactor vessel and a possible radioactive leak. Levels of cooling sea water around the reactor core had been reported as falling earlier in the day. Jiji said the pump had run out of fuel. Crucially, officials said the thick walls around the radioactive cores of the damaged reactors appeared to be intact after the earlier hydrogen blast.

The core container of the No. 3 reactor was intact after the explosion, the government said, but it warned those still in the 20km evacuation zone to stay indoors.

The plant operator, Tokyo Electric Power Co (Tepco) , said 11 people had been injured in the blast.

Kyodo said 80,000 people had been evacuated from the zone, joining more than 450,000 other evacuees from quake and tsunami-hit areas in the northeast.

“Everything I’ve seen says that the containment structure is operating as it’s designed to operate. It’s keeping the radiation in and it’s holding everything in, which is the good news,” said Murray Jennex, of San Diego State University.

“This is nothing like a Chernobyl ... At Chernobyl (in Ukraine in 1986) you had no containment structure — when it blew, it blew everything straight out into the atmosphere.” Nuclear experts said it was probably the first time in the industry’s 57-year history that sea water has been used in this way, a sign of how close Japan may be to a major accident.

“Injection of sea water into a core is an extreme measure,” Mark Hibbs of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. “This is not according to the book.” The nuclear accident, the worst since Chernobyl, sparked criticism that authorities were ill-prepared and the threat that could pose to the countr y’s nuclear power industry.

A Japanese official said before the blast that 22 people were confirmed to have suffered radiation contamination and up to 190 may have been exposed. Workers in protective clothing used hand-held scanners to check people arriving at evacuation c e n t r e s.

United States warships and planes helping with relief efforts moved away from the coast temporarily because of low-level radiation. The US Seventh Fleet described the move as precautionar y.

Almost two million households were without power in the north, the government said. There were about 1.4 million without running water.

Tens of thousands are missing. The town of Otsuchi in Iwate prefecture was obliterated.

“After my long career in the Red Cross where I have seen many disasters and catastrophes, this is the worst I have ever seen. Otsuchi reminds me of Osaka and Tokyo after World War 2 when everything was destroyed and flattened,” Japan Red Cross President Tadateru Konoe said during a visit to the coastal town.

Whole villages and towns have been wiped off the map by Friday’s wall of water, triggering an international humanitarian effort of epic propor tions.

“When the tsunami struck, I was trying to evacuate people. I looked back, and then it was like the computer graphics scene I’ve seen from the movie Armageddon. I thought it was a dream.

“It was really like the end of the wo r l d , ” said Tsutomu Sato, 46, in Rikuzantakata, a town on the northeast coast. Estimates of the economic impact are only now starting to emerge.

Hiromichi Shirakawa, chief economist for Japan at Credit Suisse, said in a note to clients that the economic loss will likely be around 14-15 trillion yen (RM520 billion to RM556 billion) just to the region hit by the quake and tsunami.

Even that would put it above the commonly accepted cost of the 1995 Kobe quake, which killed 6,000 people.

The earthquake has forced many firms to suspend production and shares in some of Japan’s biggest companies tumbled yesterday, with Toyota Corp dropping almost eight per cent.

The earthquake was the fifth most powerful to hit the world in the past century. It surpassed the Great Kanto quake of Sept 1, 1923, which had a magnitude of 7.9 and killed more than 140,000 people in the Tokyo area. — Reuters

Compound Interest dan Struktur DNA.... Revisiting!

Posted by Nelayan Forex On 3/13/2011 03:59:00 PM 0 comments

Masih ingat lagi posting di atas. Tarikh 1 Disember 2010 aku menulis tentang tajuk 'Compound Interest dan Struktur DNA'. Saat itu aku tertanya-tanya tentang kemungkinan pengaplikasian pemahaman struktur double-helix DNA kepada kefahaman gabungan pair-pair matawang dalam perdagangan forex.

Hujahku detik itu, jika Compound Interest yang merupakan sebuah teorem matematik mampu diolah secara konsep kepada perdagangan forex, berkemungkinan pemahaman yang sama juga boleh diterapkan untuk digunapakai untuk membentuk strategi ataupun kaedah melayari perdagangan forex dengan lebih baik.

Hampir tiga bulan berlalu. Dalam tempuh tersebut, aku ditakdir mengenali sebuah konsep trading yang sangat unik, tetapi sangat mengujakan! ALLAH benar-benar mendengar permohonan hambaNya... SubhanALLAH!

Rupanya DNA dan GBP/USD itu natijahnya serupa, meski harfiahnya tidak sama!

Begini ceriteranya..

DNA dibina oleh kod-kod genetik yang dipanggil gen. Gen-gen ini merupakan unit asas kepada pengekspresian protein enzim untuk pemunculan ciri-ciri fenotip. Gen-gen ini pula terbina daripada kombinasi gabungan PASANGAN bes-bes nukleotida yang dinamakan A, T, G dan C. (Tidak perlu kita mendalaminya, sekadar meminjam konsep semata!)

Begitu juga dengan perdagangan forex. Kita memperdagangkan pelbagai matawang seperti GBP, USD, JPY, CHF dan sebagainya. Dan kita memperdagangkannya secara BERPASANGAN! Makanya, hasil untung atau rugi perdagangan kita bergantung kepada nilai interaksi antara pasangan matawang tadi. Jadinya, GBP, USD dan semua matawang itu adalah 'bes-bes nukleotida' yang kita niagakan untuk melibat interaksi 'kimia' dalam penghasilan fenotip enzim kita (iaitu, rugi atau untung)!

Dalam konteks sains biomolekul, penentuan fenotip yang terhasil adalah di peringkat yang lebih asas - iaitu genotip - secara melihat kepada gabungan pasangan bes-bes nukleotida yang mengekspresikan protein enzim! Justeru, dalam konteks perdagangan forex, ia juga benar begitu!

Oleh yang demikian, 'bes-bes nukleotida' dalam forexlah yang menentukan hasilan fenotipnya! Dalam lain perkataan, pair GBP/USD sudah ditentukan pergerakannya samada ke atas atau ke bawah bergantung kepada interaksi antara matawang GBP dan matawang USD! Dan hasil interaksi pasangan tersebut sudah boleh dijangkakan samada bullish atau bearish bergantung kepada 2 perkara! Pertama, kekuatan individu antara kedua-dua matawang tersebut. Dan kedua, kedudukan base dan quote kedua-dua matawang tersebut dalam pasangan GBP/USD (dalam contoh ini GBP adalah base dan USD adalah quote)!

Justeru, jika ingin tahu ke mana bergeraknya pasangan matawang tadi.. lihat yang mana lebih kuat di antara keduanya. Seterusnya, samada price bagi pair tersebut (sebenarnya nisbah perbezaan harga kedua-duanya!) naik atau turun pula, bergantung kepada kedudukan base dan quote pasangan matawang itu!

Kesimpulannya, kita wajib mengetahui terlebih dahulu kekuatan setiap matawang utama dunia jika kita ingin memperdagangkan sesuatu matawang itu dengan matawang yang lain! Cabarannya? Kita perlu mengetahuinya setiap kali sebelum setiap transaksi entry dan exit dilakukan :-)

Demikianlah yang disebut-sebut oleh sebilangan mereka sebagai 'the currency strength trading strategy'.

WALLahu A'lam.
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News Front: 5 Things to Watch!

Posted by Nelayan Forex On 3/13/2011 01:49:00 AM 1 comments


Japan Quake's Financial Impact: Five Things to Watch
Published: Friday, 11 Mar 2011 1:12 PM ET

By: Jeff Cox, CNBC.com Staff Writer


While commodity and currency markets took the biggest immediate hit from Friday's earthquake and tsunami in Japan, the damage will be felt throughout the world's economy and the US.

In addition to the massive human toll, the quake and ensuing tsunami will exact an economic toll on Japan, which is still struggling to shake the detritus of its "lost decade" brought on by economic stagnation.

The price on both fronts is impossible to calculate at this point, but it no doubt will be profound.

"It's going to be of the most expensive disasters in history before it's done," Dennis Gartman, hedge fund manager and author of The Gartman Letter investor bulletin, told CNBC. "This is not just a Japanese circumstance, this is on both sides of the Pacific and the dollars are going to add up very quickly."

Here, then, is a look at five of the main financial effects of the crisis:

1. Ultimately, a Recovery

After Japan copes with its massive human and financial loss, the country will have to focus on rebuilding. That will take billions in private and public funds, a stimulative effort that, grimly ironic though it may be, will generate some level of stimulus and recovery.

"Obviously the human toll is the most important thing," said Nicholas Colas, chief investment strategist at ConvergEx in New York. "Generally afterward you get a big rebound in economic growth. Rebuilding creates a lot of jobs for a lot of people and a lot of new wealth creation."

Those jobs likely will come across a variety of fields, particularly in construction and energy, which sustained heavy damage from the quake.

"There's certainly going to be a lot of resources directed toward rebuilding that part of Japan," said David Resler, chief economist at Nomura Securities in New York. "It's not all going to come from the government—it's going to come from insurance companies, private companies and private savings to divert resources toward rebuilding a devastated part of the island."

The Bank of Japan meets Monday to discuss monetary policy; Capital Economics in London said a loosening is likely.

2. A Stronger Yen

The widely circulated Japanese currency is going to have to come home to help rebuild the country, meaning that the historically weak yen is going to start rising against its counterparts.

That trend quickly took hold during Friday trading, when the yen gained nearly 1.5 percent against the US dollar and nearly 1 percent against the Swiss franc. It's a trend likely to continue, with some volatility, as the country and its companies bring yen back to the mainland.

"Money is going to be repatriated back to Japan to pay for the damages," Gartman said. "That's going to be required to take care of the impact—the dollar impact, the yen impact—of the (damage) there."

3. Oil Prices Could Drop, But Only Briefly

Energy prices fell sharply Friday, partly in response to a likely drop in demand from Japan and partly from the supposed Day of Rage in Saudi Arabia amounting to less turmoil than anticipated.

How long the trend lower lasts, though, is a matter of debate, as the lull in the Middle East is probably only temporary, speculators continue to scoop up oil contracts at a record pace, and emerging market growth acts to put a floor under any major slides.

"Japan is still a very large economy. They import all their oil, they don't have any natural oil reserves," Colas said. "There is less requirement for energy."

4. Less Demand for US Treasurys?

On a normal day, a disaster on the scale of the Japan tragedy might send global investors into the safety of US Treasurys.

Yet yields rose Friday, and while there were multiple explanations—profit taking after a strong week of auctions and some decent economic data—some feared that the third-largest buyer of US debt after the Federal Reserve and China might not have as much money to buy Treasurys.

"It begs the question of whether the Japanese will be able to step in and continue to be big buyers of Treasurys," said Quincy Krosby, market strategist at Prudential Financial in Newark, N.J. "You have to believe that they're going to have to use quite a bit of their money towards rebuilding infrastructure."

Japan held $882 billion of Treasurys at the end of 2010, a number that had been steadily increasing since June. China remains the top foreign buyer of US debt, with $1.16 trillion on its books.

5. A Modest Hit to Stocks

Global equity markets languished Friday, with Asian stocks losing as much as 5 percent soon after the earthquake news hit.

But by the time US investors had to digest the situation, focus seemed to drift elsewhere as the market mainly looked at the balance between a consumer trying to rebound, a higher trade deficit and surging gasoline prices.

As a result, stock prices actually were edging higher heading into afternoon trading.

"There have been a lot of catalysts recently that could have taken this market a lot lower. Look at all that's come down recently," said James Paulsen, chief investment strategist at Wells Capital Management in Minneapolis. "I'm not sure this one is doing to do it any more than the rest of them."

Industries within the market—insurers in particular—may take a hit. But more broadly speaking the effects from Japan most likely will take firmer root elsewhere, despite anticipation for just such an exogenous effect that might trigger a pullback from the two-year rally.

"I don't think this is the event that would create fear and uncertainty in the market," said Todd Horwitz, chief strategist for the Adam Mesh Trading Group in New York. "It's a natural event, an earthquake. They'll recover."

© 2011 CNBC.com

Weekly Experts' Forecast: GU, EU and UJ (20110314 -18)

Posted by Nelayan Forex On 3/12/2011 01:50:00 PM 0 comments



GBP/USD Comments:
• Anna Coulling: Lack of interest rate rise halted sterling rally, but overall technical picture still remains positive.
• Derek Frey: Fear premium continues coming out this week
• ecPulse.com: 1.5960 should hold to keep 1 month expectation valid
• Ilian Yotov: The market has been pricing BoE rate hike expectations and the GBP could remain comfortably above $1.60, but price correction toward that level should not be excluded.
• Mohammed Isah: GBPUSD continues to retain its bullish long term uptrend but now faces bear pressure after failing at the 1.6338 level. This leaves the pair vulnerable nearer term. Within one to three months, we still have a bullish bias on the pair.
• Dr. Sivaraman: Initial aggressive gains may be seen to induce short covering
• Yohay Elam: Despite the rate hike getting closer, the situation in Britain isn't too good
EUR/USD Comments:
• Adam Narczewsk: Interest rate hikes by ECB already priced. I do not see much upside for the Euro also taking into account the PIIGS problems back in the spotlight
• Anna Coulling: Confluence of world events, macro economics & profit taking helped to stall last week's Euro rally plus resistance at 200 week ma. 1.40 still remains an important target.
• Derek Frey: Fear premium continues coming out this week
• ecPulse.com: 1.3710 should hold to keep 1 week expectation valid, while 1.4065 should be breached to confirm 1 month expectation.
• Valeria Bednarik: The battle between upcoming rate hikes and sovereign debt woes has already started, with the cross Nearing 1.3740 strong technical support; weekly close below, could be the kickstart of a bearish midterm run
• Ilian Yotov: The EUR could stay supported on expectations for a dovish Fed announcement, as well as on rising oil prices and on the prospects for future tightening of the ECB monetary policy. With some alarming trends re-emerging from the European debt markets, a major risk factor for the EUR following the Fed would be if another phase of the debt crisis is unveiled.
• Mohammed Isah: While our broader outlook remains higher on EURUSD, and we look for it to return above the 1.4035 level, corrective weakness now seen cannot be ruled out in the new week. Our overall outlook remains bullish in one to three months.
• Dr. Sivaraman: Initial aggressive gains may be seen to induce short covering
• Yohay Elam: The debt crisis finally returned to the limelight with credit downgrades. The upcoming bailout for Portugal is likely to further weaken the currency.
USD/JPY Comments:
• Anna Coulling: Continues to trade in a narrow channel between 81 and 84. Looking set to bounce higher to re-test upper trend line once more.
• Derek Frey: Fear bid that went to the Yen also comes out
• ecPulse.com: 81.05 Should hold to keep 1 week and 1 month expectations valid
• Ilian Yotov: Short-term patience could get rewarded with long-term gains, should the USD resume its march to post-intervention highs around 86 yen.
• Mohammed Isah: The pair now holds above broken falling trendline as it aims at the 83.96 and the 84.47. Next week could face a stalemate. We retain our long term bearish call in three months.
• Dr. Sivaraman: Gains may be seen for a long term
• Yohay Elam: The improvement in the US economy, and the weakness of the Japanese one are gradually pushing the pair higher.

Keys:
• Bearish: Belief that a particular currency is about to fall in value; understood as a general pessimistic trend about the state of that given currency.
• Bullish: Belief that a particular currency is about to rise in value; understood as a general optimism about the state of that given currency.
• Sideways: A sideways trend manifests when the volume of a currency pair bought and the volume of the same pair sold at a particular price are in balance or nearly in balance.

Weekly Currency Index and Heat Map Review: 20110307 - 11

Posted by Nelayan Forex On 3/12/2011 01:49:00 PM 1 comments
Currency Index Review
The currency index represents the evolution of a currency relative to the entire forex. The index is the average of one currency compared to others. The chart representation makes it easy to view trends by currency.


Effective Review Period: 1 March 2011 - 11 March 2011
Currencies: USD compared to EUR, GBP & JPY

Currency Heat Map Review
The objective of the Currency Heat Map is to provide a graphical presentation on the relative strengths of major currencies relative to others.

News Front: Markets End Week With Eyes On Japan

Posted by Nelayan Forex On 3/12/2011 01:21:00 PM 0 comments

Markets end week with eyes on Japan
Fri, Mar 11 2011, 22:11 GMT FXstreet.com

Related News
• Markets end week with eyes on Japan
• Forex: USD/JPY suffer biggest daily loss in 3 month after earthquake, tsunami
• Japan situation getting worse, markets on alert
--------------------------------------------------
FXstreet.com (Córdoba) – The Yen finished the week with gains across the board, rising sharply on Friday after an earthquake hit northern Japan. The catastrophic event triggered a decline in Asian and European markets but in Wall Street stocks finished Friday slightly in positive, but in negative for the week.

The earthquake was followed by a devastating tsunami. The Yen reacted to the downside initially but afterwards jumped in the market, erasing weekly losses. The damage and consequences of the catastrophic event are not yet know and the situation in affected areas is still dramatic. A nuclear emergency has been declared and several big aftershocks shook Japan.

Market participants will focus over Japan during the weekend. The Bank of Japan announced that next Monetary Policy Meeting, to be held on Monday will finish on the same day, and not on Tuesday as it was previously schedule. Once open on Monday, markets will have a better analysis of earthquake’s impact.

Euro jumps on agreement

The Euro rose sharply across the board in the last hours of trading on Friday after leaders of the Eurozone agree on a pact that will probably be officially sign during a European Union summit on March 24. The “pact for the euro” is designed to coordinate economic policies across the region and to improve its competitiveness. If signed, the road would be clear for an agreement over the next rescue fund, that will replace in 2013 the current European Financial Stability Facility.

The EUR/USD rose from 1.3775 reaching levels on top of 1.3900 at the end of the session while EUR/CHF erased losses and soared to 1.2925, after having reach a 1-week low at 1.2825.

News Front: Why JPY Appreciates While Quake and Tsunami Hit Japan?

Posted by Nelayan Forex On 3/11/2011 06:47:00 PM 1 comments

THIS MIGHT BE THE ANSWER..
-----------------------------------

By: Kathleen Brooks, Research Director Forex.com

There has been some choppy moves in USDJPY today. Post the Japanese earthquake the market sold yen, but it then had a sharp reversal. This is because the earthquake is likely to spur a large-scale repatriation of yen to fund the re-build effort. Japan's large current account surplus gives it room to sell assets and thus bring yen back onshore.

We saw the same action in 1995 when Japan experienced a large earthquake. We saw USDJPY sell off sharply, before coming back later in the year.

USDJPY is now below a cluster of moving averages, and below 82.25 - the bottom of the Ichimoku cloud. This suggests that we could see further declines to 82.00 then the 81.50 lows.

For now, the momentum seems to be in place for further USDJPY declines. On the upside some levels to note include 82.70 - the cloud top and 83.70 - the February highs.

LILLAHI TA'ALA.. Sdra Muhamad Hairuman Miskon

Posted by Nelayan Forex On 3/11/2011 12:41:00 AM 0 comments






Kisah beliau ku temui sewaktu aku menelusuri blog kisahjutawan.blogspot.com kendalian Sdra Haizal Ramdzan. Semoga ALLAH menurunkan rahmat dan redhaNya buat kita semua. Sesungguhnya kita sentiasa wajib mensyukuri segala kurniaanNya kepada kita yang selama ini sering kita kesampingkan.

Ya ALLAH! Anugerahkanlah rezeki yang mencukupi buat hambaMu Muhamad Hariman Miskon untuk menampung keperluan kehidupannya dan tabahkanlah hatinya menerima segala ujianMu dengan sabar dan redha. Amin Ya Rabbal Alamin.

Semoga menjadi ikhtibar buat kita semua, insyaALLAH.

-------------

Sumbangan boleh disalurkan melalui:

Puan Maryuni Binti Miskon melalui akaun Maybank – 1620 3063 2448 atau
CIMB – 1257 0000 2035 29.
No. Tel: 018-3807867

Alamat: No 28, Jalan Desa Mawar 2/11,
Seksyen 2. Taman Desa Mawar,
45500 Tanjong Karang, Selangor.

News Front: EUR/JPY Hottest Pair To Play - ING

Posted by Nelayan Forex On 3/07/2011 11:35:00 AM 0 comments
Forex: EUR/JPY hottest pair to play – ING
Mon, Mar 07 2011, 01:43 GMT FXstreet.com
Related News
• Forex: Risk off day amid bubbly oil
• Conflicting reports on EUR speculative positioning
• Cititechs going long EUR/GBP and EUR/JPY
--------------


FXstreet.com (Barcelona) - Following Trichet's hawkish stance late last week, signaling the readiness by the ECB to start hiking rates in the coming months, the Euro was given a significant boost which may potentially see a few of its rivals under the threat of mid term broad-based losses.

In this context, Chris Turner, Head of FX Strategy at ING Commercial Bank explained his bullish bias on the shared currency in an interview at Reuters Insider: “We think it can push up to 1.42 next week and we revise up our short-term targets, maybe for the next one to three months up to something like 1.45 and we retain our end-year target up at 1.48”.

However, according to Chris, “the better way to play Euro strength is against the Japanese Yen. We know, for example, that Japan is still suffering deflation. Japanese policy rates can probably be near zero for the next two years. So there's not a risk of the Bank of Japan infusing any early tightening. We think Euro-Yen is ready for an upside breakout about above this 115 to 116 level and push up to 120 and that's one of our baseline cost”.




Difference Between Fx Rates And Interest Rates

Posted by Nelayan Forex On 3/06/2011 01:35:00 PM 2 comments
Difference Between Fx Rates And Interest Rates – Inflation and Interest Rates For Forex Traders

Understanding the relationship between inflation and interest rates for a particular currency can help you decide whether or not that currency is growing stronger or weaker, and whether you should be buying or selling that currency. Inflation tends to be a constant factor in today’s monetary system, and typically inflation is an indication of economic strength and an expanding economy.
..
As employment levels and wages rise, people have more money to spend and prices will tend to rise as a result of the increase in the money supply. This is the basic cause of inflation, and while inflation levels that are kept in check can lead to sustainable economic growth, unchecked inflation levels can spell economic disaster as the economy can literally collapse under its own weight leaving hard-working citizens with money that has had its value and buying power eroded. Understandably, the Federal Reserve and all other central banks will monitor inflation levels very closely, and one of the best ways to combat inflation levels is by raising interest rates.
..
When interest rates are low, you may not be earning as much money on your savings but it is much easier to borrow money for a house, car, business, or any other type of credit. It is this ease of access to new money that can contribute to the cycle of inflation. However there can come a time when inflation levels are rising too far too fast, and instead of creating economic growth in a sustainable fashion it can lead to an out of control economy in overdrive that can lead to something that Alan Greenspan called “confiscation by inflation,” meaning that the value of each person’s money is eroded by the large increases in the overall money supply.
..
Raising interest rates will keep inflation in check by tightening the credit markets and making more difficult to gain access to new money, thereby shrinking the growth of the monetary supply and making harder to gain access to loans. The relationship between interest rates and inflation levels is an important one to understand if you are a forex trader, because keeping tabs on these simple metrics can help you determine where the overall trend of the currency is and whether you should be buying or selling. A lower interest rate will mean that your money does not grow as quickly as a factor of time, but it can also mean that the country is experiencing economic growth as loans and credit are more easily available, which means the value of a currency can increase in the foreign exchange markets despite the higher inflation levels.
..
However, inflation does not always indicate economic growth. There have been historical instances of inflation coupled with increasing unemployment and decreasing wages, and this type of economic condition is called stagflation. Stagflation can be crippling to a country’s economy and is a central bank’s worst nightmare in terms of figuring out how to solve this problem. Back in the 1970s when the United States first abandoned the Gold Standard under President Nixon, there was rampant stagflation that had to be countermanded with extremely high interest rates that went as high as 20%. This is an example of what can happen when inflation levels are left to run wild, and it can leave you with more money but far less buying power.

Experts' Forecast: GU, EU and UJ (20110307 - 11)

Posted by Nelayan Forex On 3/05/2011 11:59:00 PM 0 comments




GBP/USD Comments:
• Anna Coulling: Cable broken out of short term resistance area & now looking to re-test high early Jan 2010. Strong bullish support from ma's.
• Derek Frey: Fear premium coming out this week
• ecPulse.com: 1.5960 should hold to keep 1 month expectation valid
• Ilian Yotov: The market has been pricing BoE rate hike expectations and as long as inflationary pressures stay elevated, the U.K. economy recovers after the Q4 2010 contraction and shows resilience to the spending cuts, the GBP could remain comfortably above $1.60.
• Dr. Sivaraman: Good gains may be see for a reversal from Apr
• Yohay Elam: Despite the rate hike getting closer, the situation in Britain isn't too good.
EUR/USD Comments:
• Anna Coulling: Will be looking to re-test last November's highs. Strong technical support from ma's coupled with Trichet comments, all adding to bullish momentum
• Derek Frey: Fear premium coming out this week
• ecPulse.com: 1.3710 should hold to keep our 1 week expectation valid, while 1.3480 should hold to keep 1 month expectation valid
• Valeria Bednarik: Chances of a rate hike increase in the Euro zone, while market has temporary forgotten about sovereign debt issues. Pair is mid term bullish now, as long as above 1.3740 strong Fibonacci support.
• Ilian Yotov: As long as oil prices continue to rise, the Euro-zone inflation stays above the 2% target and more ECB policy makers turn hawkish on the prospects for future tightening of the ECB monetary policy, the EUR could remain supported.
• Dr. Sivaraman: Good gains may be see for a reversal from Apr
• Yohay Elam: The euro enjoys the imminent rate hike next month but when the debt crisis will return to the limelight, it will come under risk.
USD/JPY Comments:
• Anna Coulling: Continues to trade in a narrow channel between 81 and 84. Looking set to bounce higher to re-test upper trend line once more.
• Derek Frey: Fear bid that went to the Yen also comes out
• ecPulse.com: 81.05 Should hold to keep 1 month expectations valid
• Ilian Yotov: Short-term patience could get rewarded with long-term gains, should the USD resume its march to post-intervention highs around 86 yen.
• Dr. Sivaraman: Good gains may be seen
• Yohay Elam: The improvement in the US economy, and the weakness of the Japanese one are gradually pushing the pair higher.

Keys:
• Bearish: Belief that a particular currency is about to fall in value; understood as a general pessimistic trend about the state of that given currency.
• Bullish: Belief that a particular currency is about to rise in value; understood as a general optimism about the state of that given currency.
• Sideways: A sideways trend manifests when the volume of a currency pair bought and the volume of the same pair sold at a particular price are in balance or nearly in balance.

Weekly Currency Index and Heat Map Review: 20110228 - 0304

Posted by Nelayan Forex On 3/05/2011 11:59:00 PM 0 comments
Currency Index Review
The currency index represents the evolution of a currency relative to the entire forex. The index is the average of one currency compared to others. The chart representation makes it easy to view trends by currency.


Effective Review Period: 22 February 2011 - 04 March 2011
Currencies: USD compared to EUR, GBP & JPY

Currency Heat Map Review
The objective of the Currency Heat Map is to provide a graphical presentation on the relative strengths of major currencies relative to others.



Nelayan Forex Traderlog.. 1st Year Anniversary

Posted by Nelayan Forex On 3/02/2011 09:00:00 PM 0 comments
Hari ini setahun yang lalu - 02.03.2010 - Nelayan Forex Traderlog memula coretan membuka pengisahan. Hari ini setahun berlalu, keadaan tersangat berbeza, selepas melalui pasang surut dan ombak badai pelayaran di dada lautan Forex. Namun, andai aku diberikan pilihan untuk kembali ke detik itu, aku tetap akan memilih laluan ini. InsyaALLAH. Semoga istiqamah ini diizinkanNya sentiasa, Amin Ya Rabbal Alamin.

Terima kasih Ya ALLAH, kerana membenihkan 'cinta & cita-cita' ini dalam pentakdiranku. Alhamdulillah..
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