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Weekly Experts' Forecast: GU, EU and UJ (20110314 -18)

Posted by Nelayan Forex On 3/12/2011 01:50:00 PM



GBP/USD Comments:
• Anna Coulling: Lack of interest rate rise halted sterling rally, but overall technical picture still remains positive.
• Derek Frey: Fear premium continues coming out this week
• ecPulse.com: 1.5960 should hold to keep 1 month expectation valid
• Ilian Yotov: The market has been pricing BoE rate hike expectations and the GBP could remain comfortably above $1.60, but price correction toward that level should not be excluded.
• Mohammed Isah: GBPUSD continues to retain its bullish long term uptrend but now faces bear pressure after failing at the 1.6338 level. This leaves the pair vulnerable nearer term. Within one to three months, we still have a bullish bias on the pair.
• Dr. Sivaraman: Initial aggressive gains may be seen to induce short covering
• Yohay Elam: Despite the rate hike getting closer, the situation in Britain isn't too good
EUR/USD Comments:
• Adam Narczewsk: Interest rate hikes by ECB already priced. I do not see much upside for the Euro also taking into account the PIIGS problems back in the spotlight
• Anna Coulling: Confluence of world events, macro economics & profit taking helped to stall last week's Euro rally plus resistance at 200 week ma. 1.40 still remains an important target.
• Derek Frey: Fear premium continues coming out this week
• ecPulse.com: 1.3710 should hold to keep 1 week expectation valid, while 1.4065 should be breached to confirm 1 month expectation.
• Valeria Bednarik: The battle between upcoming rate hikes and sovereign debt woes has already started, with the cross Nearing 1.3740 strong technical support; weekly close below, could be the kickstart of a bearish midterm run
• Ilian Yotov: The EUR could stay supported on expectations for a dovish Fed announcement, as well as on rising oil prices and on the prospects for future tightening of the ECB monetary policy. With some alarming trends re-emerging from the European debt markets, a major risk factor for the EUR following the Fed would be if another phase of the debt crisis is unveiled.
• Mohammed Isah: While our broader outlook remains higher on EURUSD, and we look for it to return above the 1.4035 level, corrective weakness now seen cannot be ruled out in the new week. Our overall outlook remains bullish in one to three months.
• Dr. Sivaraman: Initial aggressive gains may be seen to induce short covering
• Yohay Elam: The debt crisis finally returned to the limelight with credit downgrades. The upcoming bailout for Portugal is likely to further weaken the currency.
USD/JPY Comments:
• Anna Coulling: Continues to trade in a narrow channel between 81 and 84. Looking set to bounce higher to re-test upper trend line once more.
• Derek Frey: Fear bid that went to the Yen also comes out
• ecPulse.com: 81.05 Should hold to keep 1 week and 1 month expectations valid
• Ilian Yotov: Short-term patience could get rewarded with long-term gains, should the USD resume its march to post-intervention highs around 86 yen.
• Mohammed Isah: The pair now holds above broken falling trendline as it aims at the 83.96 and the 84.47. Next week could face a stalemate. We retain our long term bearish call in three months.
• Dr. Sivaraman: Gains may be seen for a long term
• Yohay Elam: The improvement in the US economy, and the weakness of the Japanese one are gradually pushing the pair higher.

Keys:
• Bearish: Belief that a particular currency is about to fall in value; understood as a general pessimistic trend about the state of that given currency.
• Bullish: Belief that a particular currency is about to rise in value; understood as a general optimism about the state of that given currency.
• Sideways: A sideways trend manifests when the volume of a currency pair bought and the volume of the same pair sold at a particular price are in balance or nearly in balance.

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