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Wealth Management Di Dalam Perdagangan Forex..

Posted by Nelayan Forex On 3/26/2011 05:33:00 PM 0 comments

" Bro.. aku nampak ada satu angle yang kita traders selalu terlepas pandang. Aku rasa aku la ni mungkin di junction tu. Kebanyakan kita HANYA tertumpu pada trading technique & Money Management. So, prestasi ok ie. duit masuk, tapi wealth tak bertambah. Ringkasnya, boleh la dikatakan mewah, tapi tak kaya! Nampaknya selain trading technique & Money Management, aspek Wealth Management perlu dikuasai juga. Pandangan aku, kalu nak jadi full-timer, benda tu kena ada. Gamaknya, sebab tu ramai traders boleh buat duit, tapi tak mampu jadikan trading sebagai sole income source. Ringkasnya, between amateur trader (minimum skill acquired: trading technique) vs freelance trader (additional skill acquired: Money Management) vs pro trader (extra skill acquired: Wealth Management)."

" Apa aku nak respon pada kawan aku punya idea ni? Aku pun masih di tahap belajar."

" Takpe. Dalam belajar tak boleh ada boundaries ilmu. Kalu tak, kita bukan belajar. Sebab tu masa di kuliah, pensyarah kata kalu kita sekadar tahu apa yang diajar dalam kuliah & notanya, paling tinggi hanya boleh dapat B. Ertinya, nak cemerlang, kena tahu lebih daripada skop silibus paper tu. Sebab tu wujudnya library. Gini le bro, cuba tengok orang buat MLM ataupun jual insurance. Nape hanya 5% je yang berjaya cemerlang? Main golf pun gitu, hanya 5% je yang mampu jadi Pro. Yang lain tu berjaya juga, tapi tak sampai level tu walau buat benda yang sama.."


Demikian di atas. Ia antara text pesanan ringkas antara aku dan sahabatku, Saudagar Lilin Jepun. Semoga perkongsian ini mampu memberi serba-sedikit input untuk kita sama-sama terus bermuhasabah diri. Pandangan di atas bukanlah bersifat mutlak, justeru tertakluk kepada persepsi dan perspektif diri masing-masing.

PadaNya kita berserah diri.. WALLAHu A'lam.


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Weekly Experts' Forecast: GU, EU, UJ and UChf (20110328 -0401)

Posted by Nelayan Forex On 3/26/2011 01:50:00 PM 0 comments





GBP/USD Comments:
• Anna Coulling: Despite pullback sterling still remains bullish as markets reward UK fiscal policy. Expect to see 1.64 tested again.
• ecPulse.com: 1.5960 should hold to keep 1 month expectation valid while we need a weekly close above 1.6300 to change 1 quarter trend expectation
• Ilian Yotov: Risk aversion and lessened expectations of a BOE rate hike could extend further the recent price correction in the GBP/USD pair.
• Dr. Sivaraman: Very volatile moves may be seen
• Yohay Elam: There are good reasons why the members of the MPC are still reluctant to raise the rates, despite soaring inflation. The economy is weak. The pound is likely to continue shaking, and then drop.
• Mohammed Isah: GBPUSD is still bullish long term but continues to weaken within its broader sideways range. Within one to three months, we have a bullish bias on the pair.
EUR/USD Comments:
• Anna Coulling: The short term technical picture for the eur/usd remains mildly bullish although could be getting tired at this level. Dollar shorts now at an extreme which could be an important signal for a reversal. Pair likely to struggle anywhere above 1.43
• ecPulse.com: Breaching 1.3950 could change 1 week outlook while breaching 1.3860 could change 1 month and 1 quarter expectations
• Valeria Bednarik: As per now, bullish long term trend in Euro remains intact despite sovereign debt woes. Gains could extend towards 1.45 area in the upcoming weeks, before a reversal can come into play.
• Ilian Yotov: No surprise- Portugal looks more and more like the next hat-in-hand bailout candidate as the prime minister resigns and the country moves closer to the brink of a political and financial crisis. EU Drama Part 3, anyone?
• Dr. Sivaraman: Very volatile moves may be seen
• Yohay Elam: With the fall of the Portuguese government and the upcoming bailout, and the troubles with Ireland and with the expansion of the bailout fund, EUR/USD is looking downwards.
• Mohammed Isah: Although the pair is now hesitating following its test of the 1.4248 level, broader bias remains higher as long as it trades within its bullish channel. Our overall outlook remains bullish in one to three months.
USD/JPY Comments:
• Anna Coulling: Provided there is no BOJ or other bank intervention picture remains bearish. Any move below 80.36 will open the way to further downwards pressure.
• ecPulse.com: 78.60 should hold to keep our expectations valid
• Ilian Yotov: The potential for more G7 interventions should not be excluded and could assist the USD in forming a new base above the historic post WWII lows for the USD/JPY pair.
• Dr. Sivaraman: Swing and rise moves may be seen
• Yohay Elam: The Japanese economy was struggling also before the earthquake and the damage is severe. Together with the international effort to weaken the yen and the bounce back up, Dollar/Yen has room to rise.
• Mohammed Isah: The pair remains biased to the downside long term but now faces a recovery higher following its recent weakness. We retain our long term bearish call in three months.
USD/CHF Comments:
• Anna Coulling: Swiss franc still seen as safe haven - technical picture still bearish.
• ecPulse.com: 0.8515 should hold to keep 1 quarter expectation valid
• Valeria Bednarik: Upside corrective movements are still seen quite limited in the cross. Technical confirmations above 0.93 are needed to talk about a trend botton and probable bullish continuation
• Ilian Yotov: The multi-year bullish trend of the CHF is very strong and could accelerate on further risk aversion.
• Dr. Sivaraman: Swing and rise moves may be seen
• Yohay Elam: The ultimate safe haven currency continues to have all the reasons to rise, as Mid-East tensions are huge. Nevertheless, in the long term, the excessive strength might give way to a correction.
• Mohammed Isah: Despite its attempt at recovering higher, USDCHF continues to retain its long term bearish structure. We are bearish on the pair in one to three months.
Keys:
• Bearish: Belief that a particular currency is about to fall in value; understood as a general pessimistic trend about the state of that given currency.
• Bullish: Belief that a particular currency is about to rise in value; understood as a general optimism about the state of that given currency.
• Sideways: A sideways trend manifests when the volume of a currency pair bought and the volume of the same pair sold at a particular price are in balance or nearly in balance.

Weekly Currency Index and Heat Map Review: 20110321 - 25

Posted by Nelayan Forex On 3/26/2011 01:42:00 PM 0 comments
Currency Index Review
The currency index represents the evolution of a currency relative to the entire forex. The index is the average of one currency compared to others. The chart representation makes it easy to view trends by currency.

Effective Review Period: 15 March 2011 - 25 March 2011
Currencies: USD compared to EUR, GBP & JPY

Currency Heat Map Review
The objective of the Currency Heat Map is to provide a graphical presentation on the relative strengths of major currencies relative to others.

Weekly Experts' Forecast: GU, EU and UJ (20110321 -25)

Posted by Nelayan Forex On 3/20/2011 06:51:00 PM 0 comments



GBP/USD Comments:
• Anna Coulling: Still looking positive & we should see some further upside momentum taking cable to 1.63 area where it may struggle once again.
• ecPulse.com: 1.5960 should be breached to confirm 1 month and 1 quarter expectations
• Ilian Yotov: Risk aversion could extend further the recent price correction in the GBP/USD pair.
• Mohammed Isah: We hold on to our sideways consolidation range on GBP as it continues to be trapped between the 1.6342 and the 1.5964 level. We are bullish in one to three months.
• Dr. Sivaraman: very big trend reversal move is expected
• Yohay Elam: The recent employment data helps the pound, but the general weakness of the economy is likely to continue weighing on cable
EUR/USD Comments:
• Anna Coulling: Still clinging to 1.40 region & may push higher towards the 1.4282 high of mid November but could struggle thereafter.
• ecPulse.com: Weekly close above 1.4075 would change 1 quarter trend
• Ilian Yotov: Geo-political risk is driving currency exchange rates. Risk aversion is hurting the EUR and if this is coupled with a lack of agreement on "comprehensive solutions" to the EU debt crisis, the EUR could come under additional pressure.
• Mohammed Isah: With strength seen we believe the coming weak should witness more strength.In one to three months we are bullish on the pair.
• Dr. Sivaraman: Big trend reversal move is expected
• Yohay Elam: While the weakness of the dollar still boosts EUR/USD, the upcoming eruption of another round of the debt crisis towards April is likely to hurt the pair, especially after the EU Summit decision fell short of providing a real safety net
USD/JPY Comments:
• Anna Coulling: Earthquake & tsunami resulted in dramatically Yen - similar to post Kobe - but we should see signs of weakening as BOJ (& others) coordinate to inject some stability.
• ecPulse.com: 82.55 should be breached to confirm 1 month and 1 quarter expectations
• Ilian Yotov: Short-term patience could get rewarded with longer-term gains when the risk aversion dust settles. The potential for a BOJ intervention should not be excluded and could assist the USD in forming a new base, following new multi-year lows for the USD/JPY pair.
• Mohammed Isah: Resumed its long term weakness but now faces corrective recovery. We still retain our long term bearish call in one to three months on the USDJPY
• Dr. Sivaraman: bullish moves may become visible
• Yohay Elam: Speculation of repatriation flows following the horrific earthquake and tsunami is likely to give way to a massive international intervention to weaken the yen and help the troubled Japanese economy.

Keys:
• Bearish: Belief that a particular currency is about to fall in value; understood as a general pessimistic trend about the state of that given currency.
• Bullish: Belief that a particular currency is about to rise in value; understood as a general optimism about the state of that given currency.
• Sideways: A sideways trend manifests when the volume of a currency pair bought and the volume of the same pair sold at a particular price are in balance or nearly in balance.

Weekly Currency Index and Heat Map Review: 20110314 - 18

Posted by Nelayan Forex On 3/20/2011 06:39:00 PM 0 comments
Currency Index Review
The currency index represents the evolution of a currency relative to the entire forex. The index is the average of one currency compared to others. The chart representation makes it easy to view trends by currency.


Effective Review Period: 8 March 2011 - 18 March 2011
Currencies: USD compared to EUR, GBP & JPY

Currency Heat Map Review
The objective of the Currency Heat Map is to provide a graphical presentation on the relative strengths of major currencies relative to others.

News Front: The Yen's Story..

Posted by Nelayan Forex On 3/18/2011 02:12:00 PM 0 comments

Friday, the yen weakened against other major currencies in Asian trading after finance ministers and central bank governors from the Group of Seven agreed to intervene jointly in the foreign exchange markets for the first time in more than a decade to stabilize the yen.

The G7 nations are the United States, Japan, Germany, Britain, France, Italy and Canada.

Today's joint agreement by the G7 officials came in response to the yen's surge to record level against the dollar this week.

"In response to recent movements in the exchange rate of the yen associated with the tragic events in Japan, and at the request of the Japanese authorities, the authorities of the United States, the United Kingdom, Canada, and the European Central Bank will join with Japan, on March 18, in concerted intervention in exchange markets," the G7 statement said.

"We express our solidarity with the Japanese people in these difficult times, our readiness to provided needed cooperation and our confidence in the resilience of the Japanese economy and financial sector," the G7 statement said.

The yen has climbed steadily since last week's earthquake and tsunami as global investors closed long positions in higher-yielding and riskier assets, funded by cheap borrowing in the Japanese currency.

Expectations that Japanese companies will repatriate their overseas assets to help cover disaster-related costs also contributed to the yen's strength.

In an effort to calm markets and to reassure investors, the Bank of Japan poured cash into the financial system this week to stabilize money markets. The central bank doubled its asset-purchase fund to 10 trillion yen on March 14, pledging to step up purchases of securities including government debt, exchange-traded funds and real-estate investment trusts.

Japanese Finance Minister Yoshihiko Noda said this morning that the dollar's plunge to an all-time low around the 76 level against the yen was a factor taken into account in Japan's decision to seek cooperation in intervention in the currency markets from its Group of Seven counterparts.

Noda also said Japan's Ministry of Finance started intervention at 9 am Tokyo time and each other central banks would intervene in their own timezones.

Early in Asia yesterday, the yen surged up to a record high against the U.S. dollar, 2-year high against the pound and the Canadian dollar and new multi-month highs against the euro, franc, Aussie and the NZ dollar. But the yen came off from highs in late Asian trade and almost moved sideways in the European and U.S. sessions.

The yen's plunge today took it to a 2-week low against the euro and multi-day lows against the rest of majors. Thus far, the yen lost 7.3 percent against the greenback, 8.6 percent against the euro, 6.6 percent against the franc, 8 percent against the pound and the Canadian dollar and 9 percent against the Australian and New Zealand dollars.

Today's coordinated intervention in international currency markets marked the first by the G-7 countries since 2000, when they intervened in an effort to strengthen the euro.

Japan had called on the group to issue a statement in October 2008, when the global financial crisis drove the yen near a 13-year high against the dollar. They responded by expressing concern about "excessive" volatility, stopping short of indicating any intervention.

However, the Japanese government stepped into currency markets on September 15, 2010 after the yen rose to a 15-year high against the dollar.

The yen declined against the U.S. dollar in Asian deals. The yen is currently trading at a 3-day low of 81.86 against the dollar. If the yen weakens further, it may likely target the 83.0 level. The dollar-yen pair closed yesterday's trading at 78.92.

During Asian deals, the yen dropped to a 2-week low of 115.30 against the euro. The next downside target level for the yen is seen at 116.0. At yesterday's close, the euro-yen pair was quoted at 110.66.

The yen fell to near a 1-year low of 90.34 against the Swiss franc in the Asian session. On the downside, 91.1 is seen as the next target level for the Japanese currency. The franc-yen pair was worth 87.87 at yesterday's close.

The yen also slipped to a 3-day low of 132.54 against the pound and 83.46 against the Canadian dollar in Asian trading. If the yen slides further, it may target 135.3 against the pound and 85.2 against the loonie. The pound-yen and the loonie-yen pairs were worth 127.35 and 80.11, respectively at yesterday's close.

The yen edged down to a 3-day low of 81.43 against the Australian dollar in the Asian session. On the downside, 82.0 is seen as the next target level for the Japanese currency. At yesterday's close, the aussie-yen pair was quoted at 77.40.

Against the New Zealand dollar, the yen declined to a 3-day low of 59.78. This may be compared to yesterday's close of 56.65. The next downside target level for the yen is seen at 60.5.

Sentiment across Asian markets also received a boost today amid reports that a power cable has now reached reactor no. 2 of the troubled Fukushima Daiichi nuclear plant in Japan.

Japan's Nikkei 225 index rose 3 percent, Hong Kong's Hang Seng climbed 0.7 percent, China's Shangai composite index soared 0.6 percent, New Zealand's NZX 50 index gained 0.3 percent, South Korea's Kospi advanced 1 percent, Taiwan's main index edged up 1.3 percent, Australia's S&P 200 index advanced 1.3 percent and the All Ordinaries index was 1.4 percent higher.

In the upcoming European session, German PPI, U.K. public finances data and Swiss import and export prices - all for February, Eurozone current account and trade balance for January are slated for release.

At 7 am ET, Canada's CPI for February is expected.

News Front: A RM517b Nightmare

Posted by Nelayan Forex On 3/15/2011 01:43:00 PM 0 comments
New Straits Times
15th March, 2011
Headline:
-------------------

FUKUSHIMA: Japan scrambled to avert a meltdown at a stricken nuclear plant yesterday after a hydrogen explosion at one reactor and exposure of fuel rods at another, just days after a devastating earthquake and tsunami that killed at least 10,000 people.

Roads and rail, power and ports have been crippled across much of Japan’s northeast and estimates of the cost of the multiple disasters have leapt to as much as US$170 billion (RM517 billion).

Analysts said the economy could even tip back into recession. Japanese stocks closed down more than 7.5 per cent, wiping US$287 billion off market capitalisation in the biggest fall since the height of the global financial crisis in 2008.

Rescue workers combed the tsunami battered region north of Tokyo for survivors and struggled to care for millions of people without power and water in what Prime Minister Naoto Kan has dubbed his country’s worst crisis since World War 2.

Officials say at least 10,000 people were likely killed in the 8.9-magnitude earthquake and tsunami that followed it. Kyodo news agency reported that 2,000 bodies had been found yesterday in two coastal towns alone.

“It’s a scene from hell, absolutely nightmarish,” said Patrick Fuller of the International Red Cross Federation from the town of Otsuchi.

“The situation here is just beyond belief, almost everything has been flattened. The government is saying that 9,500 people, more than half of the population, could have died and I do fear the worst.” The big fear at the Fukushima nuclear complex, 240km north of Tokyo, is of a major radiation leak.

Jiji news agency said fuel rods at the No. 2 reactor had been entirely exposed and a fuel rod meltdown could not be ruled out.

The plant operator confirmed there was little water left in the reactor.

The explosion happened at the No. 3 reactor, two days after a blast at the No. 1 reactor.

A meltdown raises the risk of damage to the reactor vessel and a possible radioactive leak. Levels of cooling sea water around the reactor core had been reported as falling earlier in the day. Jiji said the pump had run out of fuel. Crucially, officials said the thick walls around the radioactive cores of the damaged reactors appeared to be intact after the earlier hydrogen blast.

The core container of the No. 3 reactor was intact after the explosion, the government said, but it warned those still in the 20km evacuation zone to stay indoors.

The plant operator, Tokyo Electric Power Co (Tepco) , said 11 people had been injured in the blast.

Kyodo said 80,000 people had been evacuated from the zone, joining more than 450,000 other evacuees from quake and tsunami-hit areas in the northeast.

“Everything I’ve seen says that the containment structure is operating as it’s designed to operate. It’s keeping the radiation in and it’s holding everything in, which is the good news,” said Murray Jennex, of San Diego State University.

“This is nothing like a Chernobyl ... At Chernobyl (in Ukraine in 1986) you had no containment structure — when it blew, it blew everything straight out into the atmosphere.” Nuclear experts said it was probably the first time in the industry’s 57-year history that sea water has been used in this way, a sign of how close Japan may be to a major accident.

“Injection of sea water into a core is an extreme measure,” Mark Hibbs of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. “This is not according to the book.” The nuclear accident, the worst since Chernobyl, sparked criticism that authorities were ill-prepared and the threat that could pose to the countr y’s nuclear power industry.

A Japanese official said before the blast that 22 people were confirmed to have suffered radiation contamination and up to 190 may have been exposed. Workers in protective clothing used hand-held scanners to check people arriving at evacuation c e n t r e s.

United States warships and planes helping with relief efforts moved away from the coast temporarily because of low-level radiation. The US Seventh Fleet described the move as precautionar y.

Almost two million households were without power in the north, the government said. There were about 1.4 million without running water.

Tens of thousands are missing. The town of Otsuchi in Iwate prefecture was obliterated.

“After my long career in the Red Cross where I have seen many disasters and catastrophes, this is the worst I have ever seen. Otsuchi reminds me of Osaka and Tokyo after World War 2 when everything was destroyed and flattened,” Japan Red Cross President Tadateru Konoe said during a visit to the coastal town.

Whole villages and towns have been wiped off the map by Friday’s wall of water, triggering an international humanitarian effort of epic propor tions.

“When the tsunami struck, I was trying to evacuate people. I looked back, and then it was like the computer graphics scene I’ve seen from the movie Armageddon. I thought it was a dream.

“It was really like the end of the wo r l d , ” said Tsutomu Sato, 46, in Rikuzantakata, a town on the northeast coast. Estimates of the economic impact are only now starting to emerge.

Hiromichi Shirakawa, chief economist for Japan at Credit Suisse, said in a note to clients that the economic loss will likely be around 14-15 trillion yen (RM520 billion to RM556 billion) just to the region hit by the quake and tsunami.

Even that would put it above the commonly accepted cost of the 1995 Kobe quake, which killed 6,000 people.

The earthquake has forced many firms to suspend production and shares in some of Japan’s biggest companies tumbled yesterday, with Toyota Corp dropping almost eight per cent.

The earthquake was the fifth most powerful to hit the world in the past century. It surpassed the Great Kanto quake of Sept 1, 1923, which had a magnitude of 7.9 and killed more than 140,000 people in the Tokyo area. — Reuters

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