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Weekly FPA/ HL Upcoming Signals Overview: 20110801 - 05

Posted by Nelayan Forex On 7/31/2011 11:52:00 AM 0 comments

This week is going to be an extremely busy week as we have 13 news releases to trade. I’ve to warn you upfront that in a news driven week such as this one, market tends to be indecisive and we could see wild swings as different surprises dominate market sentiment… This is going to be one of those weeks that we follow the trade plan strictly and use tight TP & SL…

Of course, it is important to mention that August 2 (Tuesday) will be the deadline for Congress to raise the debt ceiling in U.S., this is the focus of the early week and it has a very profound effect to the Forex market, therefore I’d suggest that everyone pay close attention to it.

Here’s the list of news for the week:

Monday August 1, 2011 – 4:30am EDT – UK Manufacturing PMI
Monday August 1, 2011 – 10:0am EDT – US ISM Manufacturing PMI
Tuesday August 2, 2011 – 12:30am EDT – AU RBA Interest Rate
Tuesday August 2, 2011 – 9:30pm EDT – AU Retail Sales
Wednesday August 3, 2011 – 4:30am EDT – UK Services PMI
Wednesday August 3, 2011 – 8:15am EDT – US ADP NFP
Wednesday August 3, 2011 – 10:00am EDT – US ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI
Wednesday August 3, 2011 – 6:45pm EDT – NZ Employment Change
Thursday August 4, 2011 – 7:00am EDT – UK BOE Interest Rate
Thursday August 4, 2011 – 7:45am EDT – EU ECB Interest Rate
Thursday August 4, 2011 – 8:30am EDT – EU ECB Press Conference
Friday August 5, 2011 – 7:00am EDT – CA Employment Change
Friday August 5, 2011 – 8:30am EDT – US NFP Employment Change
…once again, I’d warn everyone to follow strict rule this week, as market will change on a dime without warning.

Also we should stay away from any pre-news trading UNLESS I recommend it…

Weekly FPA/ HL Upcoming Signals Overview: 20110725 - 29

Posted by Nelayan Forex On 7/24/2011 10:59:00 AM 0 comments

This past week we saw uncertain market condition as the debt ceiling issue in the U.S. and the bailout talks in EU both stalled. With the EBA Bank Stress Test results fail to inspire confidence, market sold off both Euro and US Dollar at the beginning of the week.

Then sentiment changed for Euro after a successful bailout agreement was reached on late Thursday during the emergency summit… The market was optimistic because the deal was broader than some expected, adding provisions that lowered bailout loan interest rates not just for Greece, but for Ireland and Portugal as well. The rollover of debt triggers automatic rating change by all three major ratings agencies to selective default, and Fitch has already done just that, while S&P and Moody’s have yet to release their findings, which are likely to take place early next week.

In Washington, the debt ceiling negotiations was counterproductive with various members to the debate refusing to compromise to get a deal done. The House passed the GOP’s ‘cut, cap and balance’ plan while the Senate defeated on a party line vote. President Obama’s attempt to reach a ‘grand bargain’ with Speaker Boehner totally fell apart, and right now there are no other plans at all under consideration as we know of. As of Friday afternoon, Federal Reserve and US Treasury officials were meeting to prepare for possible debt market turmoil, though leaders in both parties still insist the US will not go as far as a default… Market remains uncertain over the future of USD, therefore dollar remains weak at the close of the week.

GBP, EUR, NZD, and AUD all gained against USD last week, with NZD showing another impressive run of 2.5% of gain. Market sentiment is likely to remain the same this week unless the US debt ceiling is raised.

Here’s a list of this week’s tradable releases:

Tue July 26, 2011 – 4:30am EDT – UK Prelim GDP q/q
Tue July 26, 2011 – 10:00am EDT – US New Home Sales
Tue July 26, 2011 – 9:30pm EDT – AU CPI q/q
Wed July 27, 2011 – 5:00pm EDT – NZ Official Cash Rate
Fri July 29, 2011 – 8:30am EDT – US Advanced GDP q/q

… on Friday we’ll also get CA GDP at the same time, but we’ll just focus on the US release as it is probably a better news to trade.

Weekly FPA Upcoming Signals Overview: 20110718 - 22

Posted by Nelayan Forex On 7/17/2011 04:00:00 AM 0 comments

This week could only be described as confused. With the risk aversion momentum carried over from last week on sovereign debt concerns in Greece, Portugal, Spain, and even Italy, market sold off the EUR during early week. Then in a twist of events, first with the FOMC Minutes showing extensive discussions on further Quantitative measures, followed by the Fed Chairman Bernanke’s testimony openig the door for QE3, market immediately turned around and sold off the USD.

To add more confusion in the mix, NZD made another all-time high against multiple currencies on its much better than expected Q1 GDP release, while AUD dropped on Westpack analyst calling for a rate cut of 100 basis points by the end of Dec. 2011… With China’s inflationery pressure remaining constant at above 6.0% and it’s GDP remaining at 9.0%, global recovery is diverging from US and EU.

With Moody’s and S&P putting US sovereign credit rating on WATCH NEGATIVE, chances for a credit downgrade has risen up to 50% due to the stalemate in congress on raising the debt ceiling.

Let’s also not forget the EBA Stress Test result showing 8 out of 90 banks failed, which is a surprising good release since analysts were expecting around 12 to 15 banks failing. However, EBA has been criticized previously for setting the bar too low, and despite of the much stricted guidelines for this stress test, EBA avoided the 800lb gorrilla question of how many banks would survive on a sovereign default… so go figure…

Next week we’ll have 6 tradable news releases… here is the list:

Tue July 19, 2011 – 9:00am EDT – CA BOC Interest Rate
Wed July 20, 2011 – 4:30am EDT – UK MPC Minutes
Wed July 20, 2011 – 10:00am EDT – US Existing Home Sales
Thu July 21, 2011 – 4:30am EDT – UK Retail Sales
Fri July 22, 2011 – 7:00am EDT – CA Core CPI
Fri July 22, 2011 – 8:30am EDT – CA Core Retail Sales

The most focused news for this week is probably UK MPC Minutes, but I believe the UK Retail Sales may be the most tradable.

Credit: FPA, Henry Liu | |

Weekly FPA Upcoming Signals Overview: 20110711 - 15

Posted by Nelayan Forex On 7/09/2011 12:59:00 PM 0 comments

This past week we saw sovereign debt concern dominate market as S&P downgraded Portugal’s sovereign rating. China hike interest rate again, which added concerns on global recovery and drove down commodity prices.

In the Interest Rate front, RBA and BOE decided to keep rates unchanged while ECB hiked rates by 25 basis point as expected. Trichet’s Press Conference supported the Euro as ECB is suspending minimum credit threshold for Portugal, eliminating any funding concerns.

On Friday, Canada’s Employment came out slightly better than expectation while U.S. NPF Employment was shockingly disappointing. With the market feeling uncertain over U.S.’ recovery, this risk aversion sentiment may be the primary driver for next week’s market.

We have a few tradable releases next week, but the focus will be on the developing situation in Europe as Italy now is in the spotlight. We should also pay attention to Retail Sales on Thursday (July 14) as it would provide another crucial confirmation for US economic recovery.

1. Tue July 12, 2011 – 4:30am EDT – UK CPI y/y
2. Tue July 12, 2011 – 2:00pm EDT – US FOMC Minutes
3. Wed July 13, 2011 – 6:45pm EDT – NZ GDP q/q
4. Thu July 14, 2011 – 8:30am EDT – US Core Retail Sales
5. Fri July 15, 2011 – 8:30am EDT – US Core CPI m/m

…the EU bank stress test is also scheduled on Friday, so keep your eyes open for that.

HL Post Analysis of NFP - 20110708:

Here are the figures for today’s (ie. yesterday's) NFP release:

NFP Employment 18K V 105KE
Private Payroll 57K versus 132KE
Prior NFP revised down to 25K (from 54K)
Prior Private Payroll revised down to 73K (from 83K)

Unemployment Rate 9.2% V 9.1%E
Number of Unemployed = 14.1M
Participation Rate = 64.1% (Lowest since 1984)

Jun. Average Hours Earnings $22.99 / Average Working Hours 34.4

Birth/Death Adjustment: 131K with 206K prior.

So what do these numbers mean? First of all, 18K NFP release is a farcry from the expectation of 105K… Most analysts are calling this number “shocking” because none of the economists surveyed by ANY news agency even came close to 18K… Meanwhile, President Obama is using the same old rhetoric “we still have a long way to go and a lot of work to do to give people the security and opportunity they deserve” and not offering any concrete solution. Market is now contemplating on those ”additional tools” that Fed. Chair Bernanke spoke of during his last press conference to possibly boost the economy, and the recovery outlook is looking grimmer by the week for U.S.

Furthermore, the private payroll figure, came out at 57K versus 132K of expectation. It is common knowledge that the Private Sector, or Small Businesses, are the saviors of US economy, and it is disappointing to say least when the market missed consensus forecast by 75K jobs… Also considering the negative revisions from last month’s NFP release, today’s NFP is negative across all spectrums.

The Unemployment Rate also ticked up by 0.1% to 9.2%, which means that the total unemployed but still receiving benefits are around 14.1, not counting ones that have already exhausted their unemployment benefits… The total number of Americans unemployment could be 25 to 30 million according to a conservative estimate. Additionally, what really stood out was teh participation rate at 64.1%, which is not only the lowest since 1984, but it is an indication that Unemployed Americans are tired of looking for jobs… This is a shocking revelation and hopefully it is seasonal due to summer.

Lastly, the Birth/Death Adjustment added +131K, which is basically a fancy way of manipulating jobs number for it to look pretty. Here’s the table for the raw unadjusted data from CES:

Total nonfarm 358.0 376.0 18.0
Total private 783.0 840.0 57.0

The figure 376.0 is adjusted with 131K of the Birth/Death ratio, netting a 18K of positive employment. Although the method of adjustment is not a straight substraction/addition, it is safe to say that without the B/D Adjustment for the month of June, we would get a negative NFP.

All in all, NFP is painting a negative picture for the U.S. economy. Traders are going to be a little more cautious in the coming weeks, and optimism is going to be low. With Greece, Portugal, Italy, and Spain all going to be in the focus, plus the European Bank Stress Test results, we should see a mostly risk aversion driven market.

Credit: FPA, Henry Liu | |

Weekly FPA Upcoming Signals Overview: 20110704 - 0708

Posted by Nelayan Forex On 7/03/2011 12:21:00 PM 0 comments

Considering that July 1 is the start of a new quarter, new month, and new beginning for the second half of 2011, market reacted exactly as one would expect, with optimism and risk appetite…

The most important development for the week was undoubtedly the sovereign debt situation in Greece. With the passing of both bills (Asterity Plan and Implementation) in Greece Parliament, investors can feel relieved as default has been averted. The next important market mover will be ECB’s rate decision on Thursday, followed by NFP from US on Friday.

Since most high impact news events are scheduled at the beginning of the month, next week will be one of the busiest week with 13 tradable releases, and that is after discounting Monday as a holiday (U.S. Independence Day).

Here’s list of tradable releases:

Sunday July 3, 2011 – 9:30pm EST – AU Retail Sales m/m
Tuesday July 5, 2011 – 12:30am EST – AU Interest Rate
Tuesday July 5, 2011 – 4:30am EST – UK Services PMI
Wednesday July 6, 2011 – 10:00am EST – US ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI
Wednesday July 6, 2011 – 6:45pm EST – NZ GDP q/q
Wednesday July 6, 2011 – 9:30pm EST – AU Employment Change
Thursday July 7, 2011 – 7:00am EST – UK BOE Interest Rate
Thursday July 7, 2011 – 7:45am EST – EU ECB Rate Decision
Thursday July 7, 2011 – 8:15am EST – US ADP NFP Employment
Thursday July 7, 2011 – 8:30am EST – EU ECB Press Conference
Thursday July 7, 2011 – 10:00am EST – CA IVEY PMI
Friday July 8, 2011 – 7:00am EST – CA Employment Change
Friday July 8, 2011 – 8:30am EST – US Nonfarm Payroll Employment

… I will probably not trade on Sunday for the Retail Sales report from Australia, but if you are around, trade it because it is probably a good market mover.

Credit: FPA, Henry Liu | |

Weekly FPA Upcoming Signals Overview: 20110627 - 0701

Posted by Nelayan Forex On 6/25/2011 01:39:00 AM 0 comments

This week turned out to be another week driven by risk aversion as concerns of Greek debt crisis dominated the market… and once again it affected the Euro negatively. With Greece PM Papandreou having survived the No Confidence vote, which in turn paved the way for the Austerity Plan vote on Tuesday, the entire market is finally seeing some hope for the Euro and preparing for the inevitable rate hike in early July by ECB.

In the U.S., Bernanke and the rest of FOMC voted unanimously to keep rates unchanged and confirmed the ending of QE2 by June. Although Bernanke was playing down recent slew of negative economic data, market still remains optimistically cautions over the direction of the USD, especially considering Bernanke’s comments of reserving the right for more stimulus and/or other “tools” at his disposal… All in all, market’s take on the FOMC’s statement was positive for the USD, as EURUSD dropped 200 pips within 24 hours of the press conference…

In Asia, RBA Minutes stated that rates will rise but not right away, as current monetary policy seems on target; China’s Wen stated that inflation is under control, which added some demand for AUD as China is Australia’s largest trade partner.

In Canada, BOC commented that Canadian economy is facing strong headwinds, which essentially drove down the CAD. Combine that with the recent decision to release the strategic oil reserve and the strength of USD after Bernanke, CAD’s outlook is turning more and more bearish by the week.

Next week, we’ll have a light economic calendar and the main market focus will be on the Greece Austerity Plan vote on Tuesday. With EU/IMF announcing an agreement today on the current 5 year Austerity plan, the passing of this bill will end the Greek saga and avert possible default concerns… I believe EURUSD may be positioned for gain as concerns over debt crisis ease this week, and demand for EURO rise on the back of speculation for ECB rate hike next week…

Here’s the list of tradable news releases for next week:

Wed June 29, 2011 – 7:00am EST – CA Core CPI m/m
Thu June 30, 2011 – 8:30am EST – CA GDP m/m
Fri July 1, 2011 – 4:30am EST – UK Manufacturing PMI
Fri July 1, 2011 – 10:00am EST – US ISM Manufacturing PMI

… once again, let’s not forget to focus on the ongoing development of the Greek saga.

Credit: FPA, Henry Liu | |

Weekly FPA Upcoming Signals Overview: 20110516 - 20

Posted by Nelayan Forex On 5/14/2011 11:34:00 AM 0 comments

Last week, we payed special attention to the AUD employment change which dropped significantly to -22.1K after strong growth in March. The US reported a 0.5% increase in retail sales amidst growing concerns over soaring gas prices and Friday’s Core CPI Report was monitored all week as US economists fear that global inflation would inevitably cross the Atlantic and affect U.S. household budgets.

Here’s what we want to focus on for next week:

1. Tuesday May 17, 2011- 4:30 am- UK CPI y/y

2. Wednesday May 18, 2011- 4:30 am- UK MPC Meeting Minutes

3. Thursday May 19, 2011- 4:30 am- UK Retail Sales m/m

4. Thursday May 19, 2011- 10:00 am- US Existing Home Sales

5. Friday May 20, 2011- 7:00 am- CA Core CPI m/m

6. Friday May 20, 2011- 8:30 am – CA Core Retail Sales m/m

This week, the UK will be releasing its yearly CPI report which will receive heavy attention because its importance in creating central banks’ inflation target. Following that, the MPC meeting Minutes will be released to show votes of the interest rate meeting two weeks ago.

The US housing market hopes to continue with last months’ rise in existing home sales. A strong report could help diminish growing concerns that linger after it was reported that foreclosures rose last month.

We’ll close the week with the Canadian CPI and Retail Sales which are likely to affect the valuation of the CAD amidst volitile commodity trends.

Credit: FPA, Henry Liu. | |

Weekly FPA Upcoming Signals Overview: 20110502 - 06

Posted by Nelayan Forex On 5/02/2011 08:47:00 PM 0 comments

Last week, Euro confidence dropped as inflation at its fastest place in two and a half years. The Federal reserve was also faced with the challenge of diminishing the unwanted effects of inflation. Therefore, Fed Chairman Bernanke announce that interest rates would be kept near zero for an extended period of time as the economy reported weak expansion in the first quarter.

US GDP continued on its slow path to recovery as economists reported a 1.8% increase in the first quarter. Overall, USD and carry trades continued on its bearish momentum in the absence of hawkish remarks from the FOMC.

Here’s what we want to focus on for this week:

1. Monday May 2, 2011- 10:00 am- USD ISM Manufacturing PMI

2. Tuesday May 3, 2011-12:30 am- AUD RBA Rate Statement

3. Tuesday May 3, 2011- 4:30 am- GBP Manufacturing PMI

4. Wednesday May 4, 2011-8:15 am- USD ADP Non Farm Employment Change

5. Wednesday May 4, 2011-10:00 am- USD ISM Non- Manufacturing PMI

6. Wednesday May 4, 2011-9:30pm- AUD Retail Sales m/m

7. Thursday May 5, 2011-4:30am- GBP Services PMI

8. Thursday May 5, 2011-7:00 am- GBP BOE Interest Rate

9. Thursday May 5, 2011-7:45 am- EUR ECB Interest Rate

10. Thursday May 5, 2011-10:00am- CAD Ivey PMI

11. Friday May 6, 2011- 7:00am- CAD Employment Change

12. Friday May 6, 2011- 8:30am-USD Non Farm Employment Change

We want to start the week by paying special attention to Monday’s US ISM Manufacturing report becuase a positive outlook remains on U.S exports as well as gains in manufacturer worker employment. Also , EUR and GBP will announce their interest rate statements. Don’t expect any significant gains in either sector as the ECB and MPC will probably try to hold interest rates as well to counteract the rising concerns about inflation.

Finally, on Friday May 6, The US will report the Non Farm Employment Change. Soft numbers are expected in this release mainly because jobless claims rose above 429K, thus showing an increase in filing activity.

Credit: FPA, Henry Liu | |

Weekly FPA Upcoming Signals Overview: 20110425 - 29

Posted by Nelayan Forex On 4/25/2011 12:55:00 PM 0 comments

Last week, the U.S. dollar weakened significantly against its major counterparts. The USD/JPY continued a downward trend reaching a monthly low of 81.85. British retail sales reported a higher than expected outcome as the British pound reached a year high of 1.6567.

The Euro landed at 1.4647 but the debt crisis continues to keeps traders at a cautious distance. The USD/CAD reach a yearly low at 0.9453 as the exchange rate through North American trade drops in anticipation of a rise in Canadian retail sales.

Here are the tradable news releases for the week:

1. Monday April 25, 2011- 10:00 am EST – USD New Home Sales

2. Tuesday April 26, 2011- 9:30 pm EST- AUD CPI q/q

3. Wednesday April 27, 2011- 4:30 am EST- GBP Prelim GDP q/q

4. Wednesday April 27, 2011- 12:30 pm EST- USD FOMC Federal Funds Rate Decision

5. Wednesday April 27, 2011- 5:00 pm EST- NZD RBNZ Interest Rate

6. Thursday April 28, 2011- 8:30 am EST- USD Advanced GDP q/q

7. Friday April 29, 2011- 8:30 am EST- CAD GDP m/m

USA, Canada and England will report the month’s GDP while Australia hopes to rebound from the trending drop in CPI.

This Friday at 12:30 pm, Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke will speak at a community affairs research conference in Arlington about the country’s financial stability. As head of the central bank, he will likely give clues as to the future of interest rate levels and monetary policy.

Credit: FPA, Henry Liu | |

Weekly FPA Upcoming Signals Overview: 20110418 - 22

Posted by Nelayan Forex On 4/18/2011 03:11:00 PM 0 comments

Last week, the U.S. market reported an increase in retail sales which supports the growing trend of the last nine months. The rise in commodity and oil prices continues to threaten CPI but at a moderate level. OPEC announced that they weren’t going to increase efforts to drill higher volumes of oil to offset the rising prices in gas. BOC decided to maintain an overnight target rate of 1% while UK inflation showed a reverse trend of the last eight months by dropping .4%. UK unemployment still remains at an undesirably high rate therefore major changes in market trends ought not to be expected.

There are 6 tradable news events for this week:

1. Tue April 19, 2011- 7:00 am EST- CAD Core CPI m/m

2. Wed April 20, 2011- 4:30 am EST- GBP MPC Meeting Minutes

3. Wed April 20, 2011- 10:00 am EST- USD Existing Home Sales

4. Thu April 21, 2011- 4:30 am EST- GBP Retail Sales m/m

5. Thu April 21, 2011- 8:30 am EST- CAD Core Retail Sales m/m

6. Thu April 21, 2011- 10:00 am EST- USD Philly Fed Manufacturing Index

This week, we want to pay close attention to the BOE as the vote count and conclusions from the MPC minutes meeting are released. The Canadian and British retail numbers will hope to project an upward trend while the U.S. clings anxiously to news concerning unemployment claims.