The last trading week of the quarter was uneventful as investors celebrated the equity market performance… European stocks were had their best quarter since 2009, up 7%, while Japan’s Nikkei index rose nearly 20% in the quarter, for its best performance in 24 years. MSCI’s benchmark emerging equity index was up 13.7% on the year. In the US, the S&P500 rose 12%, for its best quarterly performance since Q3 2009, while the DJIA had its best Q1 since 1998.
The main focus for the early week was on the Fed’s policy direction for QE3 as comments from Chairman Bernanke affirmed accommodative policy must continue. He noted that though the data is getting more encouraging the recovery is not yet self sustaining, and that policy options remain on the table if things get worse. Final Q4 US GDP met most expectations at +3.0%, however there were some worrying signs in durables goods and other manufacturing numbers; and without doubt, investors will be focusing on the upcoming NFP release next week for direction of USD…
In Europe, a stronger EFSF/ESM firewall fund was announced with a total of €800B, just in time for heightened tensions in Spain, where the government insisted that it did not need to consider a bailout for its banking system or request access to emergency funds.
In energy markets, crude prices fell as WTI crude, which nearly hit $109 last week, was down to $103 by Friday. Equity weakness in China helped lower prices for industrial metals somewhat, although copper prices still closed out Q1 up 11%.
1. Mon April 2, 2012 – 4:30am NY Time – UK Manufacturing PMI
2. Mon April 2, 2012 – 10:00am NY Time – US ISM Manufacturing PMI
3. Mon April 2, 2012 – 9:30pm NY Time – AU Retail Sales
4. Tue April 3, 2012 – 12:30am NY Time – AU RBA Interest Rate
5. Wed April 4, 2012 – 4:30am NY Time – UK Services PMI
6. Wed April 4, 2012 – 7:45am NY Time – EU ECB Interest Rate
7. Wed April 4, 2012 – 8:15am NY Time – US ADP NFP
8. Wed April 4, 2012- 8:30am NY Time – EU ECB Press Conference
9. Wed April 4, 2012 – 10:00am NY Time – US ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI
10. Thu April 5, 2012 – 7:00am NY Time – UK BOE Interest Rate
11. Thu April 5, 2012 – 8:30am NY Time – CA Employment Change
12. Fri April 6, 2012 – 8:30am NY Time – US NFP Employment
With Friday being Good Friday in Europe with most banks and market closed, Friday’s NFP could be extremely volatile IF we get a strong surprise.
Thanks,
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