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Weekly Experts' Forecast: GU, EU, UJ and UChf (20110502 - 06)

Posted by Nelayan Forex On 5/02/2011 08:37:00 PM









GBP/USD Comments:
• Ilian Yotov: The GBP could stay supported on Bank of England rate hike expectations, but if the bank disappoints and decides to sit and wait longer, the GBP could see some profit-taking kicking in.
• Mohammed Isah: While we are looking for GBP to retarget the 1.6877 and the 1.7039 levels, its failed rally followed with a shooting star candle formation ( daily chart) is now a concern. Within one to three months, we have a bullish bias on the pair.
• Dr. Sivaraman: Sideways moves and further rise may be seen
• Yohay Elam: With easing inflationary pressures and a weak economy, the pound is likely to drop after the dust from Bernanke will settle.

EUR/USD Comments:
• Valeria Bednarik: Having broke above 1.4600 as long as weekly close above, pair is heading to the 1.51/52 November 2009 highs; immediate strong long term resistance lies @ 1.4950, ahead of mentioned 1.51/52 area. Sovereign debt now, will have to wait.
• Ignacio Albizuri: Amazing trend that allow the price to reach new maximums near 1.50. Powerful retracements can be seen within the next weeks. The Dollar Index it is now in 3 years lows so it could be risky to enter long EURUSD with tight stops
• Ilian Yotov: As the Fed stays the course for "extended period" and with the market anticipating further rate hikes from the European Central Bank, the EUR could remain well-bid ahead of the ECB announcement, provided the market's attention doesn't shift to the debt issues in the Euro-zone.
• Mohammed Isah: Our bias on EUR remains for a recapture of the 1.4902 and 1.5140 levels in the days and weeks ahead. Our overall outlook remains bullish in one to three months.
• Dr. Sivaraman: Good correction may be seen before the next rise
• Yohay Elam: The situation in Greece already weighs on EUR/USD. This is likely to furhter develop, but the timing is unknown. Bernanke's blow to the dollar will contiuen dominating the scene till then.

USD/JPY Comments:
• ecPulse.com: Weekly close above 1.6715 could change our 1 quarter expectations
• Valeria Bednarik: Despite recent bearish strength, pair should hold long term above 0.80 price zone, and attempt a stronger bullish recovery, over the upcoming months; Yen will start losing its safe haven charm before the end of this year.
• Ilian Yotov: The perception of Bank of Japan as the last in line to exit its accommodative monetary policy, along with risk appetite, are helping the USD to stand on its own feet against the JPY. Further strengthening could follow the recent welcomed correction of the USD gains vs. JPY.
• Mohammed Isah: Having halted its recovery and continued to weaken, USDJPY looks to target further losses. We retain our long term bearish call in one to three months.
• Dr. Sivaraman: Swing and rise moves may be seen
• Yohay Elam: The economic impact from the March 11 catastrophe is being seen. Even with an extremely weaker dollar, the yen will be even worse off

USD/CHF Comments:
• ecPulse.com: To confirm the awaited bullish recovery, we need a weekly closing above 0.8795 zones, noting that the consecutive daily closings above 0.8750 will be also positive.
• Valeria Bednarik: With no bottom at sight, pair is meant to extend current bearish trend towards fresh record lows. COT report shows retail traders are strongly long, and unless a change there, no reversal is likely in the cross.
• Ilian Yotov: The multi-year bullish trend of the CHF vs. USD is still strong and only a Fed exit from their current ultra-accommodative monetary policy could reverse it.
• Mohammed Isah: USDCHF remains weak and vulnerable to the downside with the risk of building up further weakness towards the 0.8700/0.8600 levels in the days ahead. We are bearish on the pair in one to three months.
• Dr. Sivaraman: Swing and rise moves may be seen
• Yohay Elam: The ultimate safe haven currency not only enjoys US weakness, but also rising inflation at home. Despite these factors, it will eventually lose some of the hot air it gained, especially if the European debt crisis erupts again.

Keys:
• Bearish: Belief that a particular currency is about to fall in value; understood as a general pessimistic trend about the state of that given currency.
• Bullish: Belief that a particular currency is about to rise in value; understood as a general optimism about the state of that given currency.
• Sideways: A sideways trend manifests when the volume of a currency pair bought and the volume of the same pair sold at a particular price are in balance or nearly in balance.

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