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Weekly Experts' Forecast: GU, EU and UJ (20110221-25)

Posted by Nelayan Forex On 2/19/2011 03:41:00 PM



GBP/USD Comments:
• Ilian Yotov: The market has been pricing aggressively BoE rate hike expectations and as long as inflationary pressures stay elevated and the U.K. economy shows resilience to the spending cuts, the GBP could remain comfortably above $1.60.
• Mohammed Isah: Sideways with upside bias is seen in GBP but requires a violation of the 1.6272 level to trigger its short term uptrend now on hold. We are bullish in one to three months. • Dr. Sivaraman: Quick gains may be see till early April and then slide for a month
• Yohay Elam: King isn't really that keen on a rate hike, and the austerity measures that have hurt the job market will likely take their toll on the pound
• Gonçalo Moreira: Strong imbalance towards demand at 1,5850 could help to trigger bearish divergence currently emerging with MACD in 1H and 4H. Pair could still attempt to reach previous H in 1,6260 area.
EUR/USD Comments:
• Ilian Yotov: The EUR/USD exchange rate could continue to fluctuate within its $1.30-$1.40 range ahead of the EU Summit on March 11, which may bring an expansion on the EFSF bailout fund and could offer permanent solutions to contain the EU debt crisis.
• Mohammed Isah: While we still keep our upside bias in the short term, EUR looks to consolidate further with an eventual break through the 1.3859 level expected.In one to three months we are bullish on the pair.
• Dr. Sivaraman: Quick gains may be see till early April and then slide for a month
• Yohay Elam: Irish lessons, high Portuguese yields and slowing economies will weigh on the Euro
USD/JPY Comments:
• Ilian Yotov: A break above 84.50, the top of the existing monthly range, could see the USD accelerating its march to post-intervention highs around 86 yen.
• Mohammed Isah: Consolidation has now set in after USDJPY reversed strongly off the 81.11 level.This looks to continue in the coming week but we think upside risk should follow on ending that consolidation. We still retain our long term bearish call in one to three months on the pair
• Dr. Sivaraman: slow gains followed by quick gains might be seen
• Yohay Elam: The improvement in the US economy, and the weakness of the Japanese one are gradually pushing the pair higher

Keys:
• Bearish: Belief that a particular currency is about to fall in value; understood as a general pessimistic trend about the state of that given currency.
• Bullish: Belief that a particular currency is about to rise in value; understood as a general optimism about the state of that given currency.
• Sideways: A sideways trend manifests when the volume of a currency pair bought and the volume of the same pair sold at a particular price are in balance or nearly in balance.

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