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Experts' Forecast: EU, GU and UJ (20101129-1203)

Posted by Nelayan Forex On 12/01/2010 12:52:00 AM


EUR/USD Comments:
• Adam Narczewsk: There is still a downside potential for the EUR/USD but I believe in a rebound as the investment world calms down after the "Irish crisis" and takes into account the macro news showing recovery
• Mohammed Isah: With attempts on the upside meeting bear pressure at 1.3781 and turning EUR back lower through the 1.3445 level on Nov 23'10, nearer term risk remains lower towards the 1.3332/1.3232 levels. That zone is likely to turn the pair higher due to its technical significance.Our overall outlook remains bullish in one(with caution) to three months.
• Dr. Sivaraman: EURO is expected to gain quickly with least selling pressure for year end
• César Leiceaga: Headed towards trendline support in 1.3300/30 now that the weekly close confirmed the top. Some bullish reaction is expected at this levels but long term bias remains bearish.
• ecPulse.com: 1.3250 is the key now. Breaching it will damage any chances for a short term recovery.
• Ilian Yotov: The EUR is still correcting a significant portion of its summer/fall gains vs. USD. The pair could grind even lower, but if more details on the Irish bailout are revealed and if risk appetite makes a comeback, the EUR could catch some bids that could send it back to the upper $1.30's.
• Yohai Elam: Irish debt issues erupted earlier than expected. They will continue weighing on the Euro for quite some time.It seems that we also see an things speeding up regarding Portugal and Spain
• Valeria Bednarik: Breaking the ascendant trend coming from 1.1870 yearly low, pair has set a midterm bearish trend that would likely extend below 1.30 in the upcoming weeks.
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GBP/USD Comments:
• Mohammed Isah: Bearish nearer term risk continues to dominate after GBP turned lower below the 1.5837 level on Nov 23'10.Further momentum build up should target the 1.5648 level where a cap is expected. Within one(with caution) to three months, we are bullish on the pair.
• Dr. Sivaraman: GBP is expected to make very bullish rise moves till year end
• César Leiceaga: Bullish trendline in 1.5900s eroded this week, waiting for deeper setbacks over the coming months.
• ecPulse.com: The value of 1.5290 is the main technical target over short term basis and the most important factor is the breakout below the uptrend line that carried the wave from 1.4225 to 1.6300
• Ilian Yotov: The GBP could make another attempt at the $1.60's if the U.K. economic data remains strong and if risk appetite makes a comeback after the details on the Irish bailout are revealed.
• Yohai Elam: In the long term, austerity measures in the UK will hurt the pound.
• Valeria Bednarik: Pound remains long term range bound, with a slightly bearish tone, yet only below 1,52, not seen at this point, the bearish trend could be triggered.
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USD/JPY Comments:
• Mohammed Isah: A lot of price hesitation ahead of the 83.97 level following USDJPY nearer term recovery staged from the 80.23 level is now seen. That level stands between trend continuation and correction. Within one to three months we are bearish on the pair.
• Dr. Sivaraman: YEN is expected to weaken for year end
• César Leiceaga: Gaining upward momentum on the close above 83.00s and consolidating to resume its way up to 86.00 area.
• ecPulse.com: The pair might show some kind of calmness and stability, but an upside price explosion is under preparation according to the pair's behavior around 23.6% fibonacci level for the last downside wave from 95.00 to 80.20.
• Ilian Yotov: Improvement in investor sentiment and risk appetite, coupled with stronger U.S. economic data and higher Treasury yields could become the catalysts for the USD to revisit the post-intervention highs around 86 yen.
• Yohai Elam: A shift in US bonds can support the pair. It seems that USD/JPY found a bottom. There's upside risk for the pair from the Korean crisis, if it doesn't calm down as the markets expect.
• Valeria Bednarik: Unchanged since last updates, the bias remains bullish in the cross. Still 100 DMA around 84.30 remains key level to overcome, to confirm further gains in the upcoming weeks
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Keys:
• Bearish: Belief that a particular currency is about to fall in value; understood as a general pessimistic trend about the state of that given currency.
• Bullish: Belief that a particular currency is about to rise in value; understood as a general optimism about the state of that given currency.
• Sideways: A sideways trend manifests when the volume of a currency pair bought and the volume of the same pair sold at a particular price are in balance or nearly in balance.

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