trades forex the nelayan's way...

Setahun Bergelar Nelayan Forex..

Posted by Nelayan Forex On 1/29/2011 10:37:00 PM 0 comments

Alhamdulillah, hari ini adalah hari pertama selepas setahun genap aku terlibat secara aktif turun bernelayan ke lautan Forex. Dalam lain perkataan, dah pun genap setahun aku trading Forex secara "full-time" (sekali lagi, bukan pula bermakna aku kini telah berstatus 'full-time trader'!). Tanggal 28 Januari 2010 adalah tarikh keramat di mana Ultimate X5 didaftarkan secara rasmi dengan kapasiti kekuatan enjin sekitar 3500 cc. Sebelumnya, aku hanya sekadar 'bersampan kolek' di waktu-waktu senggang sejak mula mengenali dunia Forex kira-kira 5 tahun yang lalu. Alhamdulillah..

Sejak setahun yang lalu, jika tiada sebarang aral melintang, insyaALLAH setiap hari aku akan cuba mencari kesempatan untuk ke laut, walau seringkali terpaksa juga beralah dengan keperluan komitmen tugasan di pejabat. Syukur kehadratNya kerana Dia masih mengizinkanku meneruskan kerjaya tetapku di dalam bidang pendidikan tinggi swasta yang telah hampir 15 tahun aku bergelumang hidup.

Menjalani dua kehidupan kerjaya serentak sebenarnya punyai rahmat yang terindah. Di saat fikiran dan hati terkadang terlalu tertekan dengan kerjaya di pejabat; hembusan bayu dan deruan ombak lautan Forex seringkali membawa ketenangan jiwa dan kerehatan minda kepadaku. Namun, tidak ku nafikan, kekangan masa adalah antara cabaran utama yang harus diatur secara bijak. Jika tidak, mahu "simpang-perenang" diri dibuatnya!

Sungguhpun begitu, dunia nelayanku tidaklah semudah dan setenang yang dibayangkan sebagaimana awalnya. Bergelumang dengan hempasan dan pukulan badai, tidak mudah sebenarnya untuk kekal relevan! Setiap kali turun ke laut, pasti ada sahaja cabaran dan dugaan yang harus dihadapi. Setiap "trade" adalah sesi yang berbeza dan rekod sebelumnya tidak berkait secara eksklusif dengan sesi semasa mahupun akan datang. Bidang Forex memerlukan kebijaksanaan dan kefahaman yang mendalam tentang Mr Market dan 'suku-sakat'nya! Namun yang paling utama - malahan tidak sahaja dalam bidang ini - kesemuanya mendambakan keredhaan yang mutlak dari ALLAH yang Maha Kuasa! SubhanALLAH..

Meniti hari-hari mendatang, aku berazam untuk lebih relevan dan istiqamah untuk kekal berdaya saing dalam dunia nelayan Forex. Memang mudah berbicara, namun tiada yang mustahil jika ALLAH redha dan memberikan keizinanNya. Kita sebagai hamba dan makhlukNya, sesungguhnya wajib meyakini sifat Maha KuasaNya.

Bagi ALLAH tuhan sekalian alam, ianya semudah, 'kun kun fayakun'..

Maha Suci ALLAH!

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Experts' Forecasts: GU, EU and UJ (20110131-0204)

Posted by Nelayan Forex On 1/29/2011 12:16:00 PM 0 comments

GBP/USD Comments:
• Anna Coulling: GDP found strong support from 100ma but still looking vulnerable in the USD1.60 area
• ecPulse.com: 1.6300 should hold to preserve all our expectations
• Ilian Yotov: The Bank of England Q3 rate hike expectations have helped, at least for the time being, keep the GBP supported. Will it last much above $1.60 remains to be seen…
• Dr. Sivaraman: Aggressive gains may be seen
• Yohay Elam: The hopes for a rate hike might disappear when the economy takes a hit from austerity measures. Weakness was already seen in Q4, through GDP
EUR/USD Comments:
• Anna Coulling: Appears to be running out of steam as pair approach resistance in the USD1.3750
• ecPulse.com: 1.3950-1.3980 Should hold to keep 1 quarter expectation valid & 1.3750 should be breached to confirm1 month expectations
• Ilian Yotov: As the Fed has opened the door to further USD weakness, the only unknown is whether the market will decide, as it did in November following the Fed's QE2 announcement, that consistent improvement in the U.S. economic data would be a USD positive.
• Dr. Sivaraman: One sided gains may be seen
Yohay Elam: The big load of debt on European shoulders will probably take its toll, despite the temporary relief

USD/JPY Comments:
• Anna Coulling: Still bullish helped by Japan downgrade & now looking to break higher
• ecPulse.com: 81.05-81.35 should hold to keep 1 week and I month expectations valid
• Ilian Yotov: In the aftermath of the Fed's status-quo announcement, the U.S. dollar bulls might need to exercise some patience before the USD resumes its march to post-intervention highs around 86 yen.
• Dr. Sivaraman: Nominal gains may be seen
• Yohay Elam: The improvement in the US economy, and the downgrade that Japan got by S&P boost the pair. Note the correlation with bonds
Keys:
• Bearish: Belief that a particular currency is about to fall in value; understood as a general pessimistic trend about the state of that given currency.
• Bullish: Belief that a particular currency is about to rise in value; understood as a general optimism about the state of that given currency.
• Sideways: A sideways trend manifests when the volume of a currency pair bought and the volume of the same pair sold at a particular price are in balance or nearly in balance

Credit: FXstreet.com | |

Forex 101: L2 - Understanding The Three Market Conditions

Posted by Nelayan Forex On 1/23/2011 07:26:00 PM 0 comments

It doesn't matter what you're trading - stocks, futures, currencies, commodities, etc. - the markets can only move in one of three ways:

1. TREND (price move in the same general direction - up or down - over a period of time)

2. COUNTER-TREND ("sideways market" - prices change little & move in a range)

3. BREAKOUT (occurs when prices 'break-thru' to a new high or to a new low)

Either we are day-trading, swing trading or making more long-term play, the market can only do one of those three things at a time.

It was first talked about by French mathematician Louis Jean-Baptiste Alphonse Bachelier in his 1900 PhD thesis, the Theory of Speculation in which he said:

"Random noise (ie. counter-trending) is what defines the NORMAL market behaviour. There are only two other types of market movement that are outside of the zone of random noise: market spikes (ie. breakouts) and trends."

In other words - in plain English - MOST of the time the markets bounce around in a counter-trend (ie. sideways) mode, and OCCASIONALLY it will move into a trending mode or breakout (ie. spikes).

IT CONTINUES TO HOLD TRUE TODAY IN EVERY MARKET, EVERY INSTRUMENT, AND EVERY TIMEFRAME!

If we are intimately aware of the three market conditions (and which condition the market is currently trading in), it offers us a massive ADVANTAGE over all other traders.

Most traders ONLY trade one or most two market conditions: trends and breakouts. Unfortunately, trends and breakouts ONLY occur about 40% of the time, which means 60% of the time they are just sitting on the sidelines, or..

.. they are trading the markets as if they were behaving differently than they actually are, which is the MAJOR reason why they are losing on so many trades!

In other words, it would be like going to work on a construction site with the wrong tools 60% of the time - they are not going to do a very good job, and eventually they would get fired!

Trading like that is going to slowly drain all of their resources until they bring their account to ZERO.

Their current approach..

is why they are wrong more times than they are right..

is why they are still nervous when it comes time to pull the trigger..

is why they are not profitting CONSISTENTLY and are still looking for something to help them get there..

Therefore, we need to examine HOW THEY OCCUR and HOW WE CAN USE this powerful yet little known phenomenon to increase our accuracy, confidence, and PROFITS trading in Forex.

On average, the markets are in a trending mode only about 30% of the time, breakout mode only about 10% of the time and in a counter-trend (ranging) mode about 60% of the time.

This "60:30:10 Rule" exits across ALL MARKETS and ALL TIMEFRAMES!

TREND: 30%

BREAKOUT 10%

COUNTER-TREND 60%

Whether we realize it or not, it's that 60% column (the counter-trend mode) that is the reason we are not as profitable as we should be!

Empirical data based on the 240 trading days in a full year for 4 Majors (GU, EU, UC, UJ) on average (researched by Jason Fielder, Sharptrade Partners LLC):

Trend 34.2%

Breakout 10.8%

Counter-Trend 55.0%

Finally, how does the 60:30:10 Rule affect our trading strategy?

In two ways:

1. If we want to maximize our profits, we need to learn to trade in ALL market conditions (including Counter-Trending markets), and..

2. We can now capitalize on known "predictable moments of opportunity" (ie. times when we can determine that the market is trading in one of the three market conditions) to "stack the deck" in our favour.

FACT 1: We have to be in the market if we want to make money.

FACT 2: Counter-Trend trading allows us to pick the "low-hanging fruit" while we wait for the big moves to occur.

FACT 3: We need to precisely tailor & implement the right trading strategy, methods and techniques to suit the identified each and every market conditions in order to capitalize the moments of opportunity arise.

FACT 4: Failing to respect to any of the above-mentioned Factuals will dramatically lessen the profit margin, or deny the profitable trade opportunity, or in worst case scenario is welcoming the Medical Certificate, MC (Margin Call!).

--------

(c)Extracted partly & edited accordingly from The Triad Trading Report by Jason Fielder.

Makluman Penting:

Justifikasi dan rasionaliti pembaca adalah diperlukan untuk menggunapakai maklumat di atas. Sistem, kaedah & teknik yang berbeza & bersesuaian adalah ditekankan untuk fasa-fasa pasaran yang berbeza.

Credit: Sharptrade Partners LLC - Jason Fielder. | |

Trading Naked (Only Price Action)

Posted by Nelayan Forex On 1/23/2011 04:16:00 PM 0 comments

Trading tanpa sebarang indikator teknikal umumnya dikenali sebagai "trading naked". 'Naked trader' hanya menggunakan "price action", disertai oleh pengetahuan berkaitan:

1. "support & resistance"
2. "pivot levels"
3. "swing highs & swing lows"
4. "test of tops or bottoms"

Umumnya, "price action" adalah 'how the money moves'.

Jika diperhatikan pada sebuah carta bar, sebuah "UP bar" adalah merujuk kepada satu bar yang memiliki 'a higher high & a higher low' berbanding bar sebelumnya. "Up bars" dirujuk sebagai signal kepada sebuah 'uptrend'. "The close" lebih tinggi daripada "the open"; dan pada bar terakhir trend tersebut, "the close" adalah lebih rendah daripada "the open" kerana pada detik itu akan terdapat lebih banyak "sellers" berbanding "buyers".

Sementara itu, sebuah "DOWN bar" pula merujuk kepada satu bar yang memiliki 'a lower high & a lower low' berbanding bar sebelumnya. "Down bars" dirujuk sebagai signal kepada sebuah 'downtrend'. "The close" adalah lebih rendah daripada "the open"; dan pada bar terakhir trend tersebut, "the close" adalah lebih tinggi daripada "the open" kerana pada detik itu akan terdapat lebih banyak "buyers" berbanding "sellers".

"Inside bars" pula menggambarkan keadaan pasaran yang 'deliberation or indecision'.

" A narrow-range bar" pula merujuk kepada sebuah bar yang berkeadaan 'its high is lower' berbanding bar sebelumnya & 'its low is higher' berbanding bar sebelumnya.

" An outside bar" pula memiliki 'a higher high & a lower low' berbanding bar sebelumnya. (Turut dikenali sebagai 'engulfing bar'). Pada ketika "the open" adalah di sukuan bawah, dan "the close" adalah di sukuan atas; maka dikatakan bahawa engulfing bar tersebut adalah "bullish engulfing". Ini bererti 'the buyers are in control'. Sebaliknya pula, apabila "the open" adalah di sukuan atas bar tersebut, dan "the close" adalah di sukuan bawah, maka dikatakan engulfing bar tersebut adalah "bearish engulfing", di mana 'the sellers are in control'.

Apabila trend berkeadaan berterusan, ia akan sentiasa membina:
1. 'higher highs and higher lows' jika ia sebuah uptrend; ataupun

2. 'lower highs and lower lows' jika ia sebuah downtrend.

Apabila harga (sebenarnya nisbah kekuatan pasangan matawang) berhenti membina keadaan di atas, maka 'the trend is said to be broken'. Pada keadaan ini, kebiasaannya pasaran sedang melalui fasa 'consolidation or ranging'. Ini akan diikuti oleh penyambungan trend sebelumnya (continuation) ataupun 'breaks out in the opposite direction' (reversal).

Kita sebenarnya wajar menggunakan 'multiple time frames' untuk membantu memahami perlakuan harga & menentukan sama ada pasaran berkeadaan 'trending' ataupun 'ranging'. Ini kerana 'there are infinite trends within trends'. Harga mungkin meningkat di "daily chart" tetapi sebaliknya sedang dalam fasa 'retracement' ataupun 'correction' pada time frame yang lebih kecil.

Cara terbaik untuk mula memahami 'naked price action' adalah praktikal secara visual dan memerhati perlakuan 'patterns' di dalam beberapa time frames secara serentak; 'determining the trend that is showing in each of them'. Sebagai contoh, 'a 5-min price action' mungkin sedang memperlihatkan 5 trend berbeza dalam tempoh masa yang sama.

Hakikatnya, 'trading naked' adalah suatu cara trading yang berpotensi kerana pada akhirnya, 'everything can be narrowed down to the price'. Sebarang "technical indicator or instrument" seringkali terkait secara langsung kepada perlakuan harga dan 'will only reflect what is already shown in the numbers'.

Credit: James Dicks | |

Terapi Ozon Perubatan

Posted by Nelayan Forex On 1/23/2011 10:19:00 AM 1 comments

Kesihatan itu penting. Kalau tak sihat, nak beribadat pun susah, nak berkeluarga pun susah, nak bekerja pun susah.. dan nak ke 'laut' lagi lah susah! Bila umur dah nak mula masuk liga 40an ni, memang macam-macam penyakit singgah. Sesetengahnya, memang disebabkan usia yang meningkat, sesetengahnya pula kerana kecenderungan lifestyle zaman sekarang yang serba-serbi express dan instant!

Semalam aku ke sebuah pusat rawatan alternatif di Ampang, pekena Terapi Ozon sat!! First time cuba, mertua aku yang recommend. Setakat ni, memang aku tak boleh nak kata apa melainkan syukur Alhamdulillah ke hadrat yang Maha Kuasa. Memang power EBOO SAFE (Extracorporeal Blood Oxygenation & Ozonation/ Simple Access Fluid Extraction) ni.. Dalam tak sampai 24 jam, aku dah dapat rasa kesannya. Masalah kolesterol tinggi dan sakit kepala aku yang agak kronik diatasi sepantas sebaik protokol berakhir, Alhamdulillah.

Terapi Ozon Perubatan adalah merupakan suatu Sistem Rawatan Darah. Secara teknikalnya, melalui sistem ini, Ozon Perubatan digunakan ke atas tubuh manusia dengan cara RHP (Recirculartory Haemoperfusion), iaitu suatu teknik untuk merawat keseluruhan aliran darah manusia dengan Protokol Ozon yang khusus. Ozon Perubatan adalah sumber penyembuhan apabila digunakan ke atas tubuh manusia di mana ia akan memusnahkan patogen, membersihkan aliran darah, dan seterusnya membersihkan saluran darah, jantung, buah pinggang, hati dan keseluruhan organ-organ di dalam tubuh manusia.

Terapi Ozon juga telah dikenalpasti sebagai salah satu terapi yang paling selamat dan bebas dari kesan sampingan. Ianya telah dibuktikan oleh 'German Medical Society' melalui kajian mereka yang telah dibuat pada tahun 1980. Ia merupakan sesuatu yang agak baru di negara kita Malaysia & di rantau Asia Tenggara. Namun, ia telah diamalkan dengan begitu meluas di negara-negara Eropah, terutamanya di Germany sejak 1959.

Secara umum, ozon mampu mencegah & merawat secara efektif pelbagai jenis penyakit utama seperti koronori (masalah salur darah pada jantung tersumbat), tekanan darah tinggi, strok, migrain, diabetic, tahap kolesterol tinggi, masalah buah pinggang, masalah hati, alergi, masalah kulit, resdung dan insomnia (sekadar menyebut beberapa nama). Ia juga berkeupayaan untuk memberikan lebih vitaliti & tenaga, selain meningkatkan kepekaan.

..
Alhamdulillah.. kita sekadar berusaha, Dia yang mengizinkan segalanya.

Wallahu A'lam.

Credit: Terapi Ozon Keajaiban Perubatan - En Ahmad Kamal Hamzah/ Cik Fiza/ Cik Syima. | |

Currency Heat Map

Posted by Nelayan Forex On 1/22/2011 07:06:00 PM 0 comments

MAKLUMAN:

Jadual berkenaan akan disiarkan secara harian di ruangan Makmal Kajian Sains Samudera di penghujung halaman Traderlog ini, insyaALLAH.

Semoga memberikan manfaat buat kita semua, Amin Ya ALLAH.

Credit: ActionForex.com | |

Experts' Forecast: GU, EU and UJ (20110124-28)

Posted by Nelayan Forex On 1/22/2011 05:20:00 PM 0 comments

GBP/USD Comments:
• Anna Coulling: Topped out as expected in the USD1.60 region, expect pullback.
• Ilian Yotov: The Bank of England Q3 rate hike expectations have helped, at least for the time being, change the GBP short-term direction. Will it last much above $1.60?
• Mohammed Isah: Although price hesitation has set in, we still have our focus on the upside with a move higher towards the 1.6091/1.6181 levels the coming week. Within one one to three months, we have a bullish to consolidation bias on the pair.
• Dr. Sivaraman: There could be more quick gains in this quarter
• Yohay Elam: The hopes for a rate hike might disappear when the economy takes a hit from austerity measures
• ecPulse.com: Trading above 1.5865 is needed to confirm 1 week trend while 1.6250 should be breached to confirm 1 month target
• Derek Frey: Expecting to see the Cable pullback to 1.5600 handle.
• Valeria Bednarik: 1.60 is resulting in a tough level to break for the cross despite the upside remains contained. Weekly close above the level, should favor an approach to 1.65 in the upcoming weeks.
EUR/USD Comments:
• Anna Coulling: One of the most vicious short squeezes appears to be coming to an end having run into resistance at the USD1.35 level. Expect to see sharp pullback from current level.
• Ilian Yotov: Improvement in sentiment and yield differentials have helped the EUR sustain its exchange rate vs. USD into the $1.30s, but things could change if the Fed next week hints to the possibility of tightening.
• Mohammed Isah: Our outlook in the coming is biased to the upside towards the 1.3783 level on a firm hold above the 1.3494.Our overall outlook remains bullish in three months as we look for it to return to the 1.4281
• Dr. Sivaraman: There could be more quick gains in this quarter
• Yohay Elam: The big load of debt on European shoulders will probably take its toll, despite the temporary relief
• ecPulse.com: Trading above 1.3280 is needed to confirm 1 week and 1 month trends
• Derek Frey: Looking for a pullback towards the 1.30 level.
• Valeria Bednarik: Bullish momentum in the cross would likely extend over a couple of weeks as per weekly close Above 1.3500. Gains above 1.40 are not seen and pair will likely resume it's bearish trend.
USD/JPY Comments:
• Anna Coulling: Turning bullish & weekly price action breaking above both 9 & 14 ma's.
• Ilian Yotov: Improvement in investor sentiment and risk appetite, coupled with stronger U.S. economic data and higher Treasury yields could continue to support the USD on its march to post-intervention highs around 86 yen.
• Mohammed Isah: We think a move towards the 84.50 is still valid on correction. Risk should continue to develop towards that level and even beyond but we retain our long term bearish call in three months.
• Dr. Sivarman: There could be more quick gains in this quarter
• Yohay Elam: The improvement in the US economy boosts the pair. Note the correlation with bonds
• ecPulse.com: 81.15 should hold to keep 1 week and 1 month expectation valid
• Derek Frey: This pair remains stuck but bias remains up.
Keys:
• Bearish: Belief that a particular currency is about to fall in value; understood as a general pessimistic trend about the state of that given currency.
• Bullish: Belief that a particular currency is about to rise in value; understood as a general optimism about the state of that given currency.
• Sideways: A sideways trend manifests when the volume of a currency pair bought and the volume of the same pair sold at a particular price are in balance or nearly in balance.

Credit: FXstreet.com | |