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News Front: Why JPY Appreciates While Quake and Tsunami Hit Japan?

Posted by Nelayan Forex On 3/11/2011 06:47:00 PM 1 comments

THIS MIGHT BE THE ANSWER..
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By: Kathleen Brooks, Research Director Forex.com

There has been some choppy moves in USDJPY today. Post the Japanese earthquake the market sold yen, but it then had a sharp reversal. This is because the earthquake is likely to spur a large-scale repatriation of yen to fund the re-build effort. Japan's large current account surplus gives it room to sell assets and thus bring yen back onshore.

We saw the same action in 1995 when Japan experienced a large earthquake. We saw USDJPY sell off sharply, before coming back later in the year.

USDJPY is now below a cluster of moving averages, and below 82.25 - the bottom of the Ichimoku cloud. This suggests that we could see further declines to 82.00 then the 81.50 lows.

For now, the momentum seems to be in place for further USDJPY declines. On the upside some levels to note include 82.70 - the cloud top and 83.70 - the February highs.

LILLAHI TA'ALA.. Sdra Muhamad Hairuman Miskon

Posted by Nelayan Forex On 3/11/2011 12:41:00 AM 0 comments






Kisah beliau ku temui sewaktu aku menelusuri blog kisahjutawan.blogspot.com kendalian Sdra Haizal Ramdzan. Semoga ALLAH menurunkan rahmat dan redhaNya buat kita semua. Sesungguhnya kita sentiasa wajib mensyukuri segala kurniaanNya kepada kita yang selama ini sering kita kesampingkan.

Ya ALLAH! Anugerahkanlah rezeki yang mencukupi buat hambaMu Muhamad Hariman Miskon untuk menampung keperluan kehidupannya dan tabahkanlah hatinya menerima segala ujianMu dengan sabar dan redha. Amin Ya Rabbal Alamin.

Semoga menjadi ikhtibar buat kita semua, insyaALLAH.

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Sumbangan boleh disalurkan melalui:

Puan Maryuni Binti Miskon melalui akaun Maybank – 1620 3063 2448 atau
CIMB – 1257 0000 2035 29.
No. Tel: 018-3807867

Alamat: No 28, Jalan Desa Mawar 2/11,
Seksyen 2. Taman Desa Mawar,
45500 Tanjong Karang, Selangor.

News Front: EUR/JPY Hottest Pair To Play - ING

Posted by Nelayan Forex On 3/07/2011 11:35:00 AM 0 comments
Forex: EUR/JPY hottest pair to play – ING
Mon, Mar 07 2011, 01:43 GMT FXstreet.com
Related News
• Forex: Risk off day amid bubbly oil
• Conflicting reports on EUR speculative positioning
• Cititechs going long EUR/GBP and EUR/JPY
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FXstreet.com (Barcelona) - Following Trichet's hawkish stance late last week, signaling the readiness by the ECB to start hiking rates in the coming months, the Euro was given a significant boost which may potentially see a few of its rivals under the threat of mid term broad-based losses.

In this context, Chris Turner, Head of FX Strategy at ING Commercial Bank explained his bullish bias on the shared currency in an interview at Reuters Insider: “We think it can push up to 1.42 next week and we revise up our short-term targets, maybe for the next one to three months up to something like 1.45 and we retain our end-year target up at 1.48”.

However, according to Chris, “the better way to play Euro strength is against the Japanese Yen. We know, for example, that Japan is still suffering deflation. Japanese policy rates can probably be near zero for the next two years. So there's not a risk of the Bank of Japan infusing any early tightening. We think Euro-Yen is ready for an upside breakout about above this 115 to 116 level and push up to 120 and that's one of our baseline cost”.




Difference Between Fx Rates And Interest Rates

Posted by Nelayan Forex On 3/06/2011 01:35:00 PM 2 comments
Difference Between Fx Rates And Interest Rates – Inflation and Interest Rates For Forex Traders

Understanding the relationship between inflation and interest rates for a particular currency can help you decide whether or not that currency is growing stronger or weaker, and whether you should be buying or selling that currency. Inflation tends to be a constant factor in today’s monetary system, and typically inflation is an indication of economic strength and an expanding economy.
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As employment levels and wages rise, people have more money to spend and prices will tend to rise as a result of the increase in the money supply. This is the basic cause of inflation, and while inflation levels that are kept in check can lead to sustainable economic growth, unchecked inflation levels can spell economic disaster as the economy can literally collapse under its own weight leaving hard-working citizens with money that has had its value and buying power eroded. Understandably, the Federal Reserve and all other central banks will monitor inflation levels very closely, and one of the best ways to combat inflation levels is by raising interest rates.
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When interest rates are low, you may not be earning as much money on your savings but it is much easier to borrow money for a house, car, business, or any other type of credit. It is this ease of access to new money that can contribute to the cycle of inflation. However there can come a time when inflation levels are rising too far too fast, and instead of creating economic growth in a sustainable fashion it can lead to an out of control economy in overdrive that can lead to something that Alan Greenspan called “confiscation by inflation,” meaning that the value of each person’s money is eroded by the large increases in the overall money supply.
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Raising interest rates will keep inflation in check by tightening the credit markets and making more difficult to gain access to new money, thereby shrinking the growth of the monetary supply and making harder to gain access to loans. The relationship between interest rates and inflation levels is an important one to understand if you are a forex trader, because keeping tabs on these simple metrics can help you determine where the overall trend of the currency is and whether you should be buying or selling. A lower interest rate will mean that your money does not grow as quickly as a factor of time, but it can also mean that the country is experiencing economic growth as loans and credit are more easily available, which means the value of a currency can increase in the foreign exchange markets despite the higher inflation levels.
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However, inflation does not always indicate economic growth. There have been historical instances of inflation coupled with increasing unemployment and decreasing wages, and this type of economic condition is called stagflation. Stagflation can be crippling to a country’s economy and is a central bank’s worst nightmare in terms of figuring out how to solve this problem. Back in the 1970s when the United States first abandoned the Gold Standard under President Nixon, there was rampant stagflation that had to be countermanded with extremely high interest rates that went as high as 20%. This is an example of what can happen when inflation levels are left to run wild, and it can leave you with more money but far less buying power.

Experts' Forecast: GU, EU and UJ (20110307 - 11)

Posted by Nelayan Forex On 3/05/2011 11:59:00 PM 0 comments




GBP/USD Comments:
• Anna Coulling: Cable broken out of short term resistance area & now looking to re-test high early Jan 2010. Strong bullish support from ma's.
• Derek Frey: Fear premium coming out this week
• ecPulse.com: 1.5960 should hold to keep 1 month expectation valid
• Ilian Yotov: The market has been pricing BoE rate hike expectations and as long as inflationary pressures stay elevated, the U.K. economy recovers after the Q4 2010 contraction and shows resilience to the spending cuts, the GBP could remain comfortably above $1.60.
• Dr. Sivaraman: Good gains may be see for a reversal from Apr
• Yohay Elam: Despite the rate hike getting closer, the situation in Britain isn't too good.
EUR/USD Comments:
• Anna Coulling: Will be looking to re-test last November's highs. Strong technical support from ma's coupled with Trichet comments, all adding to bullish momentum
• Derek Frey: Fear premium coming out this week
• ecPulse.com: 1.3710 should hold to keep our 1 week expectation valid, while 1.3480 should hold to keep 1 month expectation valid
• Valeria Bednarik: Chances of a rate hike increase in the Euro zone, while market has temporary forgotten about sovereign debt issues. Pair is mid term bullish now, as long as above 1.3740 strong Fibonacci support.
• Ilian Yotov: As long as oil prices continue to rise, the Euro-zone inflation stays above the 2% target and more ECB policy makers turn hawkish on the prospects for future tightening of the ECB monetary policy, the EUR could remain supported.
• Dr. Sivaraman: Good gains may be see for a reversal from Apr
• Yohay Elam: The euro enjoys the imminent rate hike next month but when the debt crisis will return to the limelight, it will come under risk.
USD/JPY Comments:
• Anna Coulling: Continues to trade in a narrow channel between 81 and 84. Looking set to bounce higher to re-test upper trend line once more.
• Derek Frey: Fear bid that went to the Yen also comes out
• ecPulse.com: 81.05 Should hold to keep 1 month expectations valid
• Ilian Yotov: Short-term patience could get rewarded with long-term gains, should the USD resume its march to post-intervention highs around 86 yen.
• Dr. Sivaraman: Good gains may be seen
• Yohay Elam: The improvement in the US economy, and the weakness of the Japanese one are gradually pushing the pair higher.

Keys:
• Bearish: Belief that a particular currency is about to fall in value; understood as a general pessimistic trend about the state of that given currency.
• Bullish: Belief that a particular currency is about to rise in value; understood as a general optimism about the state of that given currency.
• Sideways: A sideways trend manifests when the volume of a currency pair bought and the volume of the same pair sold at a particular price are in balance or nearly in balance.

Weekly Currency Index and Heat Map Review: 20110228 - 0304

Posted by Nelayan Forex On 3/05/2011 11:59:00 PM 0 comments
Currency Index Review
The currency index represents the evolution of a currency relative to the entire forex. The index is the average of one currency compared to others. The chart representation makes it easy to view trends by currency.


Effective Review Period: 22 February 2011 - 04 March 2011
Currencies: USD compared to EUR, GBP & JPY

Currency Heat Map Review
The objective of the Currency Heat Map is to provide a graphical presentation on the relative strengths of major currencies relative to others.



Nelayan Forex Traderlog.. 1st Year Anniversary

Posted by Nelayan Forex On 3/02/2011 09:00:00 PM 0 comments
Hari ini setahun yang lalu - 02.03.2010 - Nelayan Forex Traderlog memula coretan membuka pengisahan. Hari ini setahun berlalu, keadaan tersangat berbeza, selepas melalui pasang surut dan ombak badai pelayaran di dada lautan Forex. Namun, andai aku diberikan pilihan untuk kembali ke detik itu, aku tetap akan memilih laluan ini. InsyaALLAH. Semoga istiqamah ini diizinkanNya sentiasa, Amin Ya Rabbal Alamin.

Terima kasih Ya ALLAH, kerana membenihkan 'cinta & cita-cita' ini dalam pentakdiranku. Alhamdulillah..
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