my sincere appreciation to all readers of

Nelayan Forex Traderlog

Thank You!

warmest regards:
nelayan forex

"1 Malaysia, Transformasi Berjaya, Rakyat Sejahtera"

Rahmatilah negara kami ini, Ya ALLAH!

Amin Ya Rabbal Alamin

Kemaafan Diberi, Keampunan Dipinta

SELAMAT HARI RAYA AIDILFITRI

1 Syawal 1432H/ 30 Ogos 2011M

Semoga ALLAH swt merahmati kita semua

IKHLAS DARI:

nelayan forex

How to Conduct a Trading Strategy Back Test
By: Casey Stubbs of Winners Edge Trading
___________________________________________
I almost tried to hide the title of this article or change it to something like “How to Make 637 Pips on a Slow Day” to trick traders into reading it. Why would I do that? Because this is a boring subject that most traders will run from, but oh how they need it. Conducting proper back testing can change your forex trading forever. Before you leave I will let you in on a secret I am going to have complete back test and I am going to share the strategy so this is going to have a ton of good stuff.

This article is going to discuss how to do a back test to determine if a strategy is profitable before you start to trade it. The key word is BEFORE you trade it. The problem with most traders I know is that they usually start trading with no, testing at all heck they don’t even have a plan or a strategy. I am not trying to be cruel here but I deal with traders every day and I am asking them these key questions to try to find out where they are going wrong.

So this post is much needed and I hope that you heed the words that have been written so that you may learn and be profitable.

There are some benefits to back testing a strategy before trading. The first benefit is that you will know ahead of time if a strategy actually works and if you are wasting your time or not even before you start trading live. Another great reason to back test is that you learn the strategy very well before you actually start to trade, believe me after a couple hours of straight back testing you will know you strategy inside and out. Back testing a trading strategy also allows you to test different variables with your strategy to see if changing something will increase your profits. The two small drawbacks to back testing are that the results cannot be guaranteed in the future so if you find a good one your results might not be what you actually expect when you start to trade. The other drawback is that to do it right it takes a lot of time and hard work but that can be a benefit as well.

Steps To Start Back Testing

The first thing you need even before you start back testing is a forex trading strategy. I have include a link to for your convenience to a Forex trading strategy website in case you need a strategy to test. Once you have your strategy you have to make sure that you understand all of the entry requirements, money management, exit requirements, and all of the indicators you will need for this strategy.

Once you fully understand the strategy you need to choose a pair that you are going to test on for my example I am going test on the Aud/Usd. You also have to determine how far back you are going to test. I recommend testing it a minimum of 2 months but you should probably do more.

For the example I am going to test I am going to test for one month.

Here is the my strategy for this example:

Indicators Used

1 Hr Chart

7 and 27 Simple Moving Average

Macd 8 17 9

Rsi 14

Entry Requirements

Enter on a Cross of the 7 and 27 Go in the direction of the cross.

Filters to keep us out of bad Trades

Also RSI Must be above 50 pointing up for a long and below 50 pointing down for a short.

If RSI is above 65 no trade on a long

If RSI is below 35 no trade on a short

Macd above 0 for a long and below 0 for a short.

Wait for the candle to close before entry.

If the Entry candle is larger than +50 no trade

Stops Loss And Take Profit Information

Stop loss 3 pips above previous candle to the entry

Move Stop to +30 when the price gets to +50

Trail Stop by 27 MA candle after the price gets past +30

Money Management

Chart Two Next I am going to look at all the times I think the price is going to trigger a trade and mark them on the chart.

Now we are almost ready to start the back test but before we do that we need to create a spreadsheet that will have all of the data we record from the backtest.

Here is an example of the first trade I recorded.

Now I go through and do the same thing with each trade. After I have completed the entire back test and log the results I look at the numbers in the speadsheet and make my observations of the strategy.

Here is a graph of the performance.

So now that we see the strategy is a winner, now it is time to fine tune it to make it better. The strategy was profitable but if I made some small adjustments it could be much better. If I add one or two more winning trades to the mix or get some more pips per trade, that would be a large increase in profit over time.

InstaForex – Best Broker in Asia 2011
InstaForex Company has been called the best broker of Asia triply

Worldwide known InstaForex Company has been awarded with the Best Broker in Asia title for the third time by the «World Finance Awards» launched by the British publication World Finance. Victory in this prestigious nomination comes as one more approval of the company’s positive development dynamics. The company’s management made the right choice selecting the Asian region for implementing its strategic ideas. Impressive InstaForex achievements in Asia prompted further development and creation of well-known brand which is in the limelight of Forex currency market as well as among the financial market members.

Presently, Asia involves the majority of direct sales offices and company’s divisions. In many of them educational courses and seminars are run on a permanent basis. Having carried out accurate market researches, InstaForex experts have hammered out additional services for the Asian traders. Aside from that, the second year straight a great interest of Forex society is fueled by a distinguished “Miss InstaForex Asia” contest. All this has become possible due to a competent management policy and well-skilled approach to each activity aspect.

Getting its work on the road, the company made a stake on high-grade services and their availability for traders with any capital. Amid this, its work standards are expanding permanently. To this day, InstaForex is one of the leaders of the Asian as well as of the global brokerage services market. The company offers maximally full range of trading instruments, wide choice of different options, various educational projects and unique bonus programs. In other words, InstaForex allows no matter a newcomer or a real Forex guru to find the most suitable terms of trading and extra opportunities. The broker always follows the latest trends, changes for the better and keeps on investing in people and technologies in order to meet expectations of traders around the globe. InstaForex turned out to be a reliable partner already for more than 350 thousands of traders from 80 countries. The number of representative branches also rises – expanding geographically the company advances the quality and efficiency of serving the international clients.

InstaForex team thanks the award organizer – the international financial magazine “World Finance” and every client for giving a high assessment of the company’s work. InstaForex hopes to solidify its positions in Asia and all over the world going forward for the benefit of its clients and extending its services line.

_________________________

Artikel di bawah dipetik daripada Winners Edge Trading oleh Casey Stubbs. Sebuah nukilan yang menarik dan mengujakan:
______________________________________________________________

mohon maaf di atas segala kesalahan & keterlanjuran

semoga keikhlasan antara kita menjadi asbab redha Illahi buat kita

Amin wa InsyaALLAH

This week is going to be an extremely busy week as we have 13 news releases to trade. I’ve to warn you upfront that in a news driven week such as this one, market tends to be indecisive and we could see wild swings as different surprises dominate market sentiment… This is going to be one of those weeks that we follow the trade plan strictly and use tight TP & SL…

Of course, it is important to mention that August 2 (Tuesday) will be the deadline for Congress to raise the debt ceiling in U.S., this is the focus of the early week and it has a very profound effect to the Forex market, therefore I’d suggest that everyone pay close attention to it.

Here’s the list of news for the week:

Monday August 1, 2011 – 4:30am EDT – UK Manufacturing PMI
Monday August 1, 2011 – 10:0am EDT – US ISM Manufacturing PMI
Tuesday August 2, 2011 – 12:30am EDT – AU RBA Interest Rate
Tuesday August 2, 2011 – 9:30pm EDT – AU Retail Sales
Wednesday August 3, 2011 – 4:30am EDT – UK Services PMI
Wednesday August 3, 2011 – 8:15am EDT – US ADP NFP
Wednesday August 3, 2011 – 10:00am EDT – US ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI
Wednesday August 3, 2011 – 6:45pm EDT – NZ Employment Change
Thursday August 4, 2011 – 7:00am EDT – UK BOE Interest Rate
Thursday August 4, 2011 – 7:45am EDT – EU ECB Interest Rate
Thursday August 4, 2011 – 8:30am EDT – EU ECB Press Conference
Friday August 5, 2011 – 7:00am EDT – CA Employment Change
Friday August 5, 2011 – 8:30am EDT – US NFP Employment Change
…once again, I’d warn everyone to follow strict rule this week, as market will change on a dime without warning.

Also we should stay away from any pre-news trading UNLESS I recommend it…

Currency Index Review ..

The currency index represents the evolution of a currency relative to the entire forex. The index is the average of one currency compared to others. The chart representation makes it easy to view trends by currency.

This past week we saw uncertain market condition as the debt ceiling issue in the U.S. and the bailout talks in EU both stalled. With the EBA Bank Stress Test results fail to inspire confidence, market sold off both Euro and US Dollar at the beginning of the week.

Then sentiment changed for Euro after a successful bailout agreement was reached on late Thursday during the emergency summit… The market was optimistic because the deal was broader than some expected, adding provisions that lowered bailout loan interest rates not just for Greece, but for Ireland and Portugal as well. The rollover of debt triggers automatic rating change by all three major ratings agencies to selective default, and Fitch has already done just that, while S&P and Moody’s have yet to release their findings, which are likely to take place early next week.

In Washington, the debt ceiling negotiations was counterproductive with various members to the debate refusing to compromise to get a deal done. The House passed the GOP’s ‘cut, cap and balance’ plan while the Senate defeated on a party line vote. President Obama’s attempt to reach a ‘grand bargain’ with Speaker Boehner totally fell apart, and right now there are no other plans at all under consideration as we know of. As of Friday afternoon, Federal Reserve and US Treasury officials were meeting to prepare for possible debt market turmoil, though leaders in both parties still insist the US will not go as far as a default… Market remains uncertain over the future of USD, therefore dollar remains weak at the close of the week.

GBP, EUR, NZD, and AUD all gained against USD last week, with NZD showing another impressive run of 2.5% of gain. Market sentiment is likely to remain the same this week unless the US debt ceiling is raised.

Here’s a list of this week’s tradable releases:

Tue July 26, 2011 – 4:30am EDT – UK Prelim GDP q/q
Tue July 26, 2011 – 10:00am EDT – US New Home Sales
Tue July 26, 2011 – 9:30pm EDT – AU CPI q/q
Wed July 27, 2011 – 5:00pm EDT – NZ Official Cash Rate
Fri July 29, 2011 – 8:30am EDT – US Advanced GDP q/q

… on Friday we’ll also get CA GDP at the same time, but we’ll just focus on the US release as it is probably a better news to trade.

Currency Index Review ..

The currency index represents the evolution of a currency relative to the entire forex. The index is the average of one currency compared to others. The chart representation makes it easy to view trends by currency.

Sabtu pagi, aku mempertingkatkan keupayaan fasiliti WiFi kepada UniFi TM. Alhamdulillah, pakej VIP 5 yang ku pohon tidak menghampakan. Selain capaian yang lebih stabil dan pantas, beberapa added values yang ditawarkan juga mampu membuatkan pengguna tersenyum lebar.

Produk/ Perkhidmatan yang ditawarkan di bawah pelan tersebut antaranya ialah:

Currency Index Review ..

The currency index represents the evolution of a currency relative to the entire forex. The index is the average of one currency compared to others. The chart representation makes it easy to view trends by currency.

This past week we saw sovereign debt concern dominate market as S&P downgraded Portugal’s sovereign rating. China hike interest rate again, which added concerns on global recovery and drove down commodity prices.

In the Interest Rate front, RBA and BOE decided to keep rates unchanged while ECB hiked rates by 25 basis point as expected. Trichet’s Press Conference supported the Euro as ECB is suspending minimum credit threshold for Portugal, eliminating any funding concerns.

On Friday, Canada’s Employment came out slightly better than expectation while U.S. NPF Employment was shockingly disappointing. With the market feeling uncertain over U.S.’ recovery, this risk aversion sentiment may be the primary driver for next week’s market.

We have a few tradable releases next week, but the focus will be on the developing situation in Europe as Italy now is in the spotlight. We should also pay attention to Retail Sales on Thursday (July 14) as it would provide another crucial confirmation for US economic recovery.

1. Tue July 12, 2011 – 4:30am EDT – UK CPI y/y
2. Tue July 12, 2011 – 2:00pm EDT – US FOMC Minutes
3. Wed July 13, 2011 – 6:45pm EDT – NZ GDP q/q
4. Thu July 14, 2011 – 8:30am EDT – US Core Retail Sales
5. Fri July 15, 2011 – 8:30am EDT – US Core CPI m/m

…the EU bank stress test is also scheduled on Friday, so keep your eyes open for that.

Currency Index Review ..

The currency index represents the evolution of a currency relative to the entire forex. The index is the average of one currency compared to others. The chart representation makes it easy to view trends by currency.




Effective Review Period: 28 June 2011 - 8 July 2011
Currencies: USD compared to EUR, GBP & JPY

Alhamdulillah. Perjuangan di dada lautan semalam membuahkan hasil yang lumayan. Sedari tengahari selepas solat Jumaat aku telah pun menyinsing lengan mengemudi bot menerjah ombak dan bayu. ALLAH mengizinkanku memenuhi semua objektif yang perlu kugapai semalam. Terima kasih, Ya ALLAH! Sambil tersenyum, aku tiba-tiba terkenangkan 'kehebatan' hari semalam. Bukan kisah 'dunia laut', namun ceritera di 'dunia awam'. Namun pertaliannya tetap terkait sehingga membawa kepada dunia lautku. Kisah hari semalam.

Considering that July 1 is the start of a new quarter, new month, and new beginning for the second half of 2011, market reacted exactly as one would expect, with optimism and risk appetite…

The most important development for the week was undoubtedly the sovereign debt situation in Greece. With the passing of both bills (Asterity Plan and Implementation) in Greece Parliament, investors can feel relieved as default has been averted. The next important market mover will be ECB’s rate decision on Thursday, followed by NFP from US on Friday.

Since most high impact news events are scheduled at the beginning of the month, next week will be one of the busiest week with 13 tradable releases, and that is after discounting Monday as a holiday (U.S. Independence Day).

Here’s list of tradable releases:

Sunday July 3, 2011 – 9:30pm EST – AU Retail Sales m/m
Tuesday July 5, 2011 – 12:30am EST – AU Interest Rate
Tuesday July 5, 2011 – 4:30am EST – UK Services PMI
Wednesday July 6, 2011 – 10:00am EST – US ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI
Wednesday July 6, 2011 – 6:45pm EST – NZ GDP q/q
Wednesday July 6, 2011 – 9:30pm EST – AU Employment Change
Thursday July 7, 2011 – 7:00am EST – UK BOE Interest Rate
Thursday July 7, 2011 – 7:45am EST – EU ECB Rate Decision
Thursday July 7, 2011 – 8:15am EST – US ADP NFP Employment
Thursday July 7, 2011 – 8:30am EST – EU ECB Press Conference
Thursday July 7, 2011 – 10:00am EST – CA IVEY PMI
Friday July 8, 2011 – 7:00am EST – CA Employment Change
Friday July 8, 2011 – 8:30am EST – US Nonfarm Payroll Employment

… I will probably not trade on Sunday for the Retail Sales report from Australia, but if you are around, trade it because it is probably a good market mover.

Currency Index Review ..

The currency index represents the evolution of a currency relative to the entire forex. The index is the average of one currency compared to others. The chart representation makes it easy to view trends by currency.



Effective Review Period: 21 June 2011 - 1 July 2011
Currencies: USD compared to EUR, GBP & JPY

Sebentar tadi, sebaik aku selesai santapan tengahari di sebuah kedai ayam kampung di Kota Damansara, aku didekati seorang hambaALLAH. Beliau berpakaian seperti seorang pendakwah. Rupanya beliau menyampaikan hajat untuk memohon derma bagi pihak sebuah yayasan anak-anak yatim di Selatan Thailand.

"Nak resit, Encik?" tanyanya sopan.

Aku menggelengkan kepala. Biarlah ALLAH yang menilainya, bisik hatiku.

Tiba-tiba, beliau menghulurkan sehelai kertas yang agak lusuh. Bismillah Enam. Demikianlah nama doa yang terpapar di helaian itu. Beliau menerangkan fadhilat dan cara-cara untuk amalan doa tersebut. Aku sekadar mengangguk-angguk, cuba sedaya upaya memahami dan mengingati pesanannya. Namun suasana hingar yang agak riuh di kedai makan itu sesungguhnya mengganggu fokusku.

Sebaik tiba di pejabat, aku terdetik untuk 'google' tentang Bismilah Enam. Akhirnya, aku dipandu ke sebuah laman blog bernama "An Affandisme Tale". Nawaitu ingin berkongsi, diperturunkan di sini intipati pemilik laman berhubung Bismillah Enam: