Salam....
Bermula June 2015, effectively next month, saya akan upload posting untuk Analisa Mingguan dan Analisa Harian, insyaALLAH.
Serentak dengan itu, servis Free Signal akan dihentikan untuk paparan umum dan hanya akan dihantar terus ke mailbox subscribers/ alumni.
Analisa Mingguan (weekly posting: Monday 12.00 noon MYT)
- previous week overall market review
- current week overall market analysis
Analisa Harian: (daily posting: Daily 12.00 noon MYT)
- daily projected currency pairs directional bias (EJ, EU, GJ, GU, UJ, UCad, AJ, AU, NU and Gold)
- daily prospective currency pairs analysis
Semua analisa adalah menggunakan metodologi Nelayan Methods dan Seagull's Eye.
Disclaimer di bawah adalah berkaitan:
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IMPORTANT NOTICE & DISCLAIMER
All analysis/ techniques/ systems/ methods/ strategies/ services/ resources etc presented in here are for educational purposes only and are the respected property of their respective owners. All rights reserved. We hereby rectify the optimization have been done in-house as at our maximum capabilities & knowledge.
Although we are greatly confident with the effectiveness of the presented materials, we hereby neither taking any responsibilities, nor any liabilities, on the actual results resulted from its application in real market condition. Please understand that hypothetical trading doesn't involve financial risk, and no hypothetical trading record can completely account for the impact of financial risk in actual trading. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown.
You accept full responsibilities for your actions, trades, profit or loss. The use of the above constitutes acceptance of my user agreement.
- Nelayan Forex / Nelayan Forex Traderlog -
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Salam taqzim
Nelayan
Forex trading, sebagaimana yang kita sedia maklumi, adalah sebuah 'peperangan' harga di antara satu matawang dengan satu matawang yang lain. Lebih tepat lagi ialah peperangan 'nilai' yang seterusnya akan mewujudkan nisbah di antara pasangan matawang.
Apa yang dicari oleh pasangan matawang itu?
Jawapannya ialah KESEIMBANGAN.
Suatu nilai SEIMBANG yang dipersetujui oleh 'sellers' dan 'buyers'.
Ertinya, pasaran akan sentiasa bergerak untuk mencari zon SEIMBANG yang dipersetujui oleh majoriti pelabur, peniaga ataupun peserta pasaran.
Zon Seimbang ini pula sentiasa bergerak dari satu paras ke satu paras yang lain. Makanya, pasaran akan sentiasa berubah-ubah dari suatu Zon Seimbang ke suatu Zon Seimbang yang baru. Keseimbangan ini ditentukan oleh berbagai-bagai faktor, terutamanya sentimen, perspektif mahupun psikologi peserta pasaran. Banyak faktor lain yang turut juga terlibat, antaranya teknikal pasaran itu sendiri.
Makanya, satu pasangan matawang tadi akan sentiasa cuba berada di dalam Zon Seimbang. Sekiranya terdapat faktor-faktor makro mahupun mikro yang signifikan untuk berubah, maka nisbah nilai (yang biasanya kita sebut HARGA) pasangan matawang tadi akan cuba bergerak mencari Zon Seimbang yang baru bagi memenuhi impak faktor-faktor tadi.
Jadi ringkasnya, pasangan matawang itu akan sentiasa berada di:
DALAM ZON SEIMBANG --> LUAR ZON SEIMBANG --> DALAM ZON SEIMBANG BARU
Ada ketikanya, apabila nisbah nilai ('harga') bagi pasangan matawang itu cuba bergerak mencari Zon Seimbang yang baru, nisbah nilai yang baru itu tidak diterima (rejected). Maka nisbah nilai ('harga') akan kembali ke Zon Seimbang yang lama.
Demikianlah kitaran tanpa henti 'peperangan' tadi.
Jadi apa pentingnya kefahaman ini kepada kita para traders?
Jawapannya...
Ya, kita kena TUNGGU... TUNGGU... dan TUNGGU...
Kita perlu mahir untuk mengenalpasti Zon-zon ini supaya dengan itu kita insyaALLAH mampu mengenalpasti PELUANG untuk Entry (juga Exit).
Memanglah penantian itu suatu penyiksaan...
Sebab itu lah posting ini muncul :)
Sebab dah penat tunggu sejak awal pagi, market masih belum SETTLED.
Market belum decide samada nak ke atas atau ke bawah.
Anyway, that's the beauty of it...
Sebab itu, traders yang berjaya adalah traders yang sentiasa punyai tahap KESABARAN yang tinggi!
InsyaALLAH.
Dan yang indahnya pula...
Sabar itu sebahagian dari keimanan... Pesan Rasullullah SAW.
Alhamdulillah...
Salam trading,
Nelayan
(as at 10.30am MYT)
Pending Entry 1
Short Sell at 1182.50
TP: 1180.00 (250 pips)
Pending Entry 2
Long Buy at 1193.00
TP: 1195.50 (250 pips)
* please apply proper money management since no SL is imposed
Directional Bias:
(as at 10:30am MYT)
EUR/JPY Long BUY
EUR/USD Long BUY
GBP/JPY Long BUY
GBP/USD Long BUY
USD/JPY Long BUY
USD/CAD Short SELL
AUD/JPY Short SELL
AUD/USD Short SELL
NZD/USD Short SELL
(as at 10:00am MYT)
Pending Entry 1
Long Buy at 1201.90
TP: 1204.40 (250 pips)
Pending Entry 2
Short Sell at 1189.00
TP: 1186.50 (250 pips)
* please apply proper money management since no SL is imposed
Directional Bias:
(as at 02:00pm MYT)
EUR/JPY Short Sell
EUR/USD Short Sell
GBP/JPY Short Sell
GBP/USD Short Sell
USD/JPY Long Buy
USD/CAD Long Buy
AUD/JPY Short Sell
AUD/USD Short Sell
NZD/USD Short Sell
Pending Entry 1
Long Buy at 1207.00
TP: 1209.50 (250 pips)
Pending Entry 2
Short Sell at 1199.50
TP: 1197.00 (250 pips)
* please apply proper money management since no SL is imposed
FOREX MARKET
Word’s best inside FX traders
The Australian financial regulator ASIC launched an investigation into the 'suspicious trading' responsible for the jump in the AUDUSD just prior to the release of the Reserve bank of Australia surprise decision to hold interest rates in March 3. On April 7 the Reserve Bank of Australia again surprised the market by holding rates. In the minute prior to the report release the market also reacted strongly. The financial regulator ASIC suggested this was evidence of inside trading. But is it really?
Closer examination of the charts casts a better light on this so-called inside trading activity.
The pair in focus is the AUDUSD. Here's the chart for March 3. Quite clearly there is a sharp move before the release of the report. The release time is shown as 13.00 on the 2 minute chart because we use local time on our computer system.
Ok, the major pairs often move together but note the move is not exactly the same as the AUDUSD pair. What happens with the smaller crosses? These CAD and HKD pairs show similar reactions, although the correction following the release is much greater than in the previous charts. Also there is more volume increase in the AUDCAD pair than the AUDHKD pair in the lead-up to the report release.
By now it's going to come as no surprise when the minor currencies like the AUDSGD cross behave in much the same way. However the doji candle pattern with AUDNZD is quite different from the AUDUSD pair and this shows the charts are created in response to completed trades.
Compare the March 3 charts to the release of Australian Reserve bank reports on April 7. The one minute charts from Oanda use our local time, so the official release of the Reserve bank decision is at 14:00. On every one minute chart the market moves dramatically at 13.59 in the minute before the official release of the decision.
AUDUSD
The Oanda 5 second chart for AUDUSD shows the move started at 13:59:50. The move is duplicated on all AUD pairs. By 14:00 all that was left was for the market to digest what had already happened and price activity moved sideways.
The same pattern is repeated on the 5 second chart for the AUDJPY, AUDCAD and AUDSGD pairs.
EUR/AUD
The EURAUD 5 second chart shows exactly the same pattern. The pattern is repeated on the GBPAUD chart
For inside trading to be present we would have to see a significant move in one or two crosses prior to 14:00 AND prior to the broad market move at 13:59. This does not happen.
Australia must have the world's best FX inside traders to be able to take such large positions in every AUD pair at exactly the same time! We take our hats are off to these traders because they have achieved the impossible.
Of course that explanation is plain garbage. A single inside trader might trade one pair, but it is highly unlikely they would have the inclination or the resources to trade EVERY AUD pair.
The exact replication of the fast up move in all AUD pairs in the 2 minutes or 10 seconds prior to the official release of the information is not best explained by inside trading. It is more reasonably explained by the early loading of Reserve Bank information to servers prior to the official release of the data. This is a global market reacting instantly to information as it becomes available to ALL PARTICIPANTS.
The charts clearly show that the Reserve bank information became available to many participants in the minute prior to the official release time. These moves are captured across all pairs by High Frequency Quantitative Trading Algorithms. They have algorithms running in the Dark Pools. These are on the institutional side, not the mums and dads.
The charts clearly suggest that the problem is in the way the Reserve bank loads this data to the web in preparation for its official release. The duplication of behaviour across all AUD pairs shows this information is available to many, if not all, participants at the same time. It's time to call of the FX witch hunt.
The FX market is the deepest and most liquid market in the world. It is arguably the most closely watched and monitored. This intense scrutiny makes it difficult to conduct inside trading. The real concern in the markets associated with the FX market is the manipulation of benchmark interest rates. That task is best left to the banks and other institutions who manipulated LIBOR interest rates and other benchmarks in 2008 and onwards.
Dary Guppy
Founder and Director
Guppytraders.com
Founder and Director
Guppytraders.com
Salam..
Lama tersangat dah tak menulis 'hal hati' di sini. Paling-paling pun sekadar pop-up entries untuk Daily Signal dan beberapa 'hal minda' berkaitan trading.
Minta maaf. Memang tersangat sibuk sekarang.. Menguruskan urusan seharian di samping terutamanya hal perasaan diri yang 'tersayat'. Mmmm.. tak nak komen panjang fasal ni. Personal sangat.
Okaylah. Sebenarnya entry ni khas ditujukan kepada beberapa readers yang requested untuk bahan-bahan pembelajaran yang melibatkan Nelayan Methods dan Seagull's Eye. Banyak sangat email sampai ambil keputusan tulis di sini sahaja. Senang. Semua pun nampak dan boleh baca tanpa prejudis.
Ramai yang minta bahan-bahan pembelajaran bertulis yang lengkap dan tersusun.
Sebetulnya, bahan-bahan pembelajaran yang diminta memang belum tersusun. Sebab memang tak pernah adakan sesi formal pun selama ni untuk sebarang seminar atau kursus. Yang ada dibuat selama ni hanyalah sesi 'Personal Coaching' dan 'Live Trade'. Masa sesi tu lah sedaya upaya pengetahuan dan pengalaman dikongsi dengan para peserta. Nota pun mereka catat sendiri! Pun begitu, kami memang bantu 'setting up' untuk platform dan 'system templates'.
Kenapa ye tiada bahan-bahan pembelajaran diberi secara terus?
He.. He..
PERTAMANYA, sebab kami memang tak sempat nak prepare kerana kami sendiri adalah full-time daily traders.
KEDUANYA, kerana semua sesi 'Personal Coaching' dan 'Live Trade' yang dibuat adalah PERCUMA, FOC, GRATIS, etc.. Paling-paling pun trainees cuma belanja Mee Bandung dan Milo Tarik dan duit minyak/ tol kalau jauh sampai Penang dan Terengganu. Kadang-kadang, kami sendiri yang belanja trainees! GST pun kami serap.. He.. He.. Setakat ni la. Tak tahu la pula di masa-masa akan datang dah terpaksa jadi non-gratis pula sebab sememangnya coaching pun actually sedikit-sebanyak ambil masa 'periuk nasi' kami. Iyelah, bila terpaksa beri tumpuan pada trainees, confirm fokus trading pun 'lari' sedikit-sebanyak. Tak percaya cuba tanya otai-otai kat luar sana yang memang intensively running classes, seminars, coaching sessions and live trade sessions.
So, itu lah makluman saya kepada para readers berkaitan yang budiman.
Anyway, saya mungkin akan mempertimbangkan cadangan seorang reader yang minta saya buat Analisa Harian dan Mingguan selain 'Daily Signal' untuk diposkan ke dada traderlog ini. InsyaALLAH, akan saya usahakan dalam masa yang terdekat. Semoga bermanfaat.
Buat saudara-saudara dan saudari-saudari yang jauh, terutama dari Langkawi (Sdra Rafidi), Kelantan (Cikgu Azlanee) dan Brunei (Bro Alimin), terima kasih atas kesungguhan yang ditunjukkan. Jika benar-benar berminat, mungkin kita boleh uruskan sesuatu buat geng-geng kat sana. InsyaALLAH.
Sampai jumpa lagi... Selamat bertrading...
Tips... market sedang cantik sekarang.. insyaALLAH bullish bias untuk kebanyakan major pairs.. EJ, EU, GJ, GU, AU dan Gold... Trade at your own risk!
WALLAHu A'lam.
= Salam Nelayan =
Pending Entry 1
Long Buy at 1210.00
TP: 1212.50 (250 pips)
Pending Entry 2
Short Sell at 1195.50
TP: 1193.00 (250 pips)
* please apply proper money management since no SL is imposed
