Commentary of the EUR/JPY pair :
The pair EUR/JPY is currently testing the support at 110.
Indicators are mitigated.
The pair is still moving above its medium term bullish slant (purple line).
We continue to advise long positions as far as 109.23 is support.
The breakout of 111 and 112 will both give a new buy signal.
In case of return below 109.23, we will wait the breakout of 108.50 to advise short positions.
The pair EUR/JPY is currently testing the support at 110.
Indicators are mitigated.
The pair is still moving above its medium term bullish slant (purple line).
We continue to advise long positions as far as 109.23 is support.
The breakout of 111 and 112 will both give a new buy signal.
In case of return below 109.23, we will wait the breakout of 108.50 to advise short positions.
- Bruno -
Trades Forex The Nelayan's Way: Trading Wealth Management Planner
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Trades Forex The Nelayan's Way: FREE Daily Potential ENTRY Signal Services
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By: Henry Liu
The better US economic data, Tuesday’s FOMC statement, the positive release of the annual bank stress tests, and the relative lack of news out of Europe, pushed risk sentiment higher this past week… Market’s sentiment changed after Tuesday’s FOMC statement where the Fed acknowledged the slowly improving economic conditions but there was no mention of anything QE3, in either the statement or speech by Chairman Bernanke.
Of course, with Fed Governor Lacker strongly suggesting that exceptionally low rates will not be required through 2014 while calling for tighter policy as early 2013 later on in the week, the treasury yield curve on the benchmark steepened around 25 basis points for the week, reflecting the move out of safe havens as overall yields hit their highest levels since last October… adding some consolidation in overall USD bulls…
In the Far East, China revealed on Monday that its trade balance plunged $31.5B into the red in February, the largest deficit since 1989, as imports overwhelmed exports. Chinese Premier Wen offered further commentary on his nation’s new 7.5% GDP target, which he claimed is needed to transform China’s growth to higher quality and also defended property tightening measures.
Market will be eyeing the open on Sunday, with this week’s focus mainly on the European news, we’ll see a bit more volatility in their currencies for sure.
Here’s the list of tradable releases for the week:
Tue March 20, 2012 – 5:30am EST – UK CPI y/y
Wed March 21, 2012 – 5:30am EST – UK MPC Minutes
Wed March 21, 2012 – 10:00am EST – US Existing Home Sales
Wed March 21, 2012 – 5:45pm EST – NZ GDP q/q
Thu March 22, 2012 – 5:30am EST – UK Retail Sales
Thu March 22, 2012 – 8:30am EST – CA Retail Sales
Fri March 23, 2012 – 7:00am EST – CA Core CPI
Fri March 23, 2012 – 10:00am EST – US New Home Sales
A Holistic View in Forex Trading
Written by Nathan Tucci on March 5, 2012
______________________________________
You know, we always talk about the market like it is this wild beast that will tear you up and down relentlessly. Believe me, I get the analogy.. I have been chewed up many times myself. But, in the broad view of the Forex market, it has actually been rather mild over the years.
Sure, any pair at any time can spike 100 pips in the blink of an eye when you aren’t ready for it, but I am talking about a holistic, larger point of view. After all, a 100 pip spike may cost you a thousand dollars, but the price of the currency has hardly changed at all… a 100 pip move is a change of about one penny in the actual value of the currency.
Now, don’t get me wrong, I understand that the fluctuation of the market, even by a few pennies, is significant; but if we take an outside, objective view, the movement of a few hundred pips is no big deal.
Certainly, some currencies have moved enough to make very large changes in the world’s financial scope, but these kind of changes are made from years of consistent trending—not a few week rally.
A larger view of the currency markets shows us that, for the most part, different economies currencies are floating back and forth, constantly being held in check by the bounce or fall of a few pennies on the dollar.
I believe that a larger view of these markets and what they are really portraying can help us in our trading. I know that many Forex traders have a distorted view of the worlds’ economies because of what they see on their charts.
Let me give you an example:
Over the last several weeks, I have been stuck in some CAD/JPY shorts as the Canadian Dollar has been sky rocketing ESPECIALLY against the Yen. Now, to me, this run of Canadian strength has been brutal, and I cannot believe how weak the Yen has been.. It is driving me crazy.
HOWEVER, Imagine this:
A Canadian gentleman named Adam leaves for a trip to Japan on February 3rd (the same day I entered my Cad/Jpy short). Adam exchanges a thousand of his Canadian dollars for some Japanese Yen.
It turns out that Adam’s Japanese hosts are very kind and he ends up not having to spend a single Yen while he is there. He stays for about a month and arrives back to Canada on March 1st.
When Adam gets back to Canada, he exchanges his Yen back for Canadian dollars, expecting to get his thousand dollars back, and only receives 930 dollars.
Adam is a little annoyed that he just lost seventy dollars for no reason, of course, but seventy bucks really isn’t that big of a deal.
Meanwhile, I am basically making the same deal he did—trading Canadian dollars for Japanese Yen—yet I am losing thousands of dollars.
This happens because the leverage in Forex gives us a distorted view of the market. I made a little video to exaggerate my point.
Obviously, I am being completely unreasonable in the video, but I wanted to make the point that sometimes we do tend to have an unrealistic view of the market.
As a Forex trader, you should understand that any time a currency could move a hundred pips against you and it really means nothing. It is a simply penny fluctuation in the pair for one reason or another.
Keeping this holistic mindset while we trade can help our success… I will be writing an article soon, about exactly HOW I think it can help us be more successful, so stay tuned for that.
Thanks for reading!
Nathan
Written by Nathan Tucci on March 5, 2012
______________________________________
You know, we always talk about the market like it is this wild beast that will tear you up and down relentlessly. Believe me, I get the analogy.. I have been chewed up many times myself. But, in the broad view of the Forex market, it has actually been rather mild over the years.
Sure, any pair at any time can spike 100 pips in the blink of an eye when you aren’t ready for it, but I am talking about a holistic, larger point of view. After all, a 100 pip spike may cost you a thousand dollars, but the price of the currency has hardly changed at all… a 100 pip move is a change of about one penny in the actual value of the currency.
Now, don’t get me wrong, I understand that the fluctuation of the market, even by a few pennies, is significant; but if we take an outside, objective view, the movement of a few hundred pips is no big deal.
Certainly, some currencies have moved enough to make very large changes in the world’s financial scope, but these kind of changes are made from years of consistent trending—not a few week rally.
A larger view of the currency markets shows us that, for the most part, different economies currencies are floating back and forth, constantly being held in check by the bounce or fall of a few pennies on the dollar.
I believe that a larger view of these markets and what they are really portraying can help us in our trading. I know that many Forex traders have a distorted view of the worlds’ economies because of what they see on their charts.
Let me give you an example:
Over the last several weeks, I have been stuck in some CAD/JPY shorts as the Canadian Dollar has been sky rocketing ESPECIALLY against the Yen. Now, to me, this run of Canadian strength has been brutal, and I cannot believe how weak the Yen has been.. It is driving me crazy.
HOWEVER, Imagine this:
A Canadian gentleman named Adam leaves for a trip to Japan on February 3rd (the same day I entered my Cad/Jpy short). Adam exchanges a thousand of his Canadian dollars for some Japanese Yen.
It turns out that Adam’s Japanese hosts are very kind and he ends up not having to spend a single Yen while he is there. He stays for about a month and arrives back to Canada on March 1st.
When Adam gets back to Canada, he exchanges his Yen back for Canadian dollars, expecting to get his thousand dollars back, and only receives 930 dollars.
Adam is a little annoyed that he just lost seventy dollars for no reason, of course, but seventy bucks really isn’t that big of a deal.
Meanwhile, I am basically making the same deal he did—trading Canadian dollars for Japanese Yen—yet I am losing thousands of dollars.
This happens because the leverage in Forex gives us a distorted view of the market. I made a little video to exaggerate my point.
Obviously, I am being completely unreasonable in the video, but I wanted to make the point that sometimes we do tend to have an unrealistic view of the market.
As a Forex trader, you should understand that any time a currency could move a hundred pips against you and it really means nothing. It is a simply penny fluctuation in the pair for one reason or another.
Keeping this holistic mindset while we trade can help our success… I will be writing an article soon, about exactly HOW I think it can help us be more successful, so stay tuned for that.
Thanks for reading!
Nathan
Upcoming Forex News Calendar by Henry Liew:
In Europe, ECB lent approx €530B in its three-year LTRO to around 800 European banks, which is roughly inline with the previous LTRO result. ECB officials also warned that there would not likely be a third round of LTRO coming, and data out on Friday suggested that much of the net new liquidity from the operation was parked in the ECB’s overnight facility. At the EU Leaders’ Summit on Friday, 25 of 27 EU nations agreed to implement the new fiscal pact, but they deferred final approval of the second Greek bailout package to next Friday, when the results of the private debt swap (PSI) should be available.
Earlier in the week, the ISDA ruled that the terms of the debt swap did not amount to a default, meaning that Greek sovereign CDS have not been triggered. And the focus was shifted as sketchy reports (later denied) of a pipeline explosion in Saudi Arabia propelled front-month WTI crude above the $110 handle. However crude futures closed out the week lower, down 2.8%, snapping a three-week winning streak.
In the US, economic data out this week were strong, with the second reading of the Q4 US GDP figures a bit stronger than expected at +3.0%. Regional manufacturing surveys also continued to be very robust, not metioning the Consumer Confidence readings…
All in all the market will be focusing on this coming week’s US NFP release, along with Mario Draghi’s ECB Press Conference…
Here’s the list of upcoming tradable releases:
1. Mon March 5, 2012 – 4:30am EST – UK Services PMI
2. Mon March 5, 2012 – 10:00am EST – US ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI
3. Mon March 5, 2012 – 10:30pm EST – AU ECB Interest Rate
4. Tue March 6, 2012 – 10:00am EST – CA Ivey PMI
5. Tue March 6, 2012 – 7:30pm EST – AU GDP q/q
6. Wed March 7, 2012 – 8:15am EST – US ADP NFP
7. Wed March 7, 2012 – 3:00pm EST – NZ RBNZ Interest Rate
8. Wed March 7, 2012 – 7:30pm EST – AU Employment Change
9. Thu March 8, 2012 – 7:00am EST – UK BOE Interest Rate
10. Thu March 8, 2012 – 7:45am EST – EU ECB Interest Rate
11. Thu March 8, 2012 – 8:30am EST – EU ECB Press Conference
12. Thu March 8, 2012 – 9:00am EST – CA BOC Interest Rate
13. Fri March 9, 2012 – 7:00am EST – CA Employment Change
14. Fri March 9, 2012 – 8:30am EST – US NFP Employment
Thank you.
Markets started out calm and in a wait-and-see pattern during this past week, possibly due to the flood of central bank liquidity and the lack of scheduled high impact releases… However, trading picked up as demand for USD soared as traders detected a harder line from Fed Chairman Bernanke in his semi-annual monetary report to Congress on Wednesday, when he noticeably excluded any reference to QE3.
In Europe, ECB lent approx €530B in its three-year LTRO to around 800 European banks, which is roughly inline with the previous LTRO result. ECB officials also warned that there would not likely be a third round of LTRO coming, and data out on Friday suggested that much of the net new liquidity from the operation was parked in the ECB’s overnight facility. At the EU Leaders’ Summit on Friday, 25 of 27 EU nations agreed to implement the new fiscal pact, but they deferred final approval of the second Greek bailout package to next Friday, when the results of the private debt swap (PSI) should be available.
Earlier in the week, the ISDA ruled that the terms of the debt swap did not amount to a default, meaning that Greek sovereign CDS have not been triggered. And the focus was shifted as sketchy reports (later denied) of a pipeline explosion in Saudi Arabia propelled front-month WTI crude above the $110 handle. However crude futures closed out the week lower, down 2.8%, snapping a three-week winning streak.
In the US, economic data out this week were strong, with the second reading of the Q4 US GDP figures a bit stronger than expected at +3.0%. Regional manufacturing surveys also continued to be very robust, not metioning the Consumer Confidence readings…
All in all the market will be focusing on this coming week’s US NFP release, along with Mario Draghi’s ECB Press Conference…
Here’s the list of upcoming tradable releases:
1. Mon March 5, 2012 – 4:30am EST – UK Services PMI
2. Mon March 5, 2012 – 10:00am EST – US ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI
3. Mon March 5, 2012 – 10:30pm EST – AU ECB Interest Rate
4. Tue March 6, 2012 – 10:00am EST – CA Ivey PMI
5. Tue March 6, 2012 – 7:30pm EST – AU GDP q/q
6. Wed March 7, 2012 – 8:15am EST – US ADP NFP
7. Wed March 7, 2012 – 3:00pm EST – NZ RBNZ Interest Rate
8. Wed March 7, 2012 – 7:30pm EST – AU Employment Change
9. Thu March 8, 2012 – 7:00am EST – UK BOE Interest Rate
10. Thu March 8, 2012 – 7:45am EST – EU ECB Interest Rate
11. Thu March 8, 2012 – 8:30am EST – EU ECB Press Conference
12. Thu March 8, 2012 – 9:00am EST – CA BOC Interest Rate
13. Fri March 9, 2012 – 7:00am EST – CA Employment Change
14. Fri March 9, 2012 – 8:30am EST – US NFP Employment
Thank you.
