trades forex the nelayan's way...: May 2011

Elliott Wave: EU Highs In Place, Only Bears Ahead

Posted by Nelayan Forex On 5/16/2011 12:31:00 AM 0 comments

Elliott Wave Corner
Eur/Usd Long-term: 2011 Highs In Place, Only Bears Ahead
Sun, May 15 2011, 08:41 GMT
by Gregor Horvat - Elliott Wave Forecast

Two extremely bearish weeks for Euro from recent highs and broken trend line connected from start of the year, definitely suggest that we have a top in place on Euro.

Usually when we look for reversal in trend we try to pick least aggressive outlook. As such, we are looking for incomplete wave II) structure, where flat correction appears to be the best idea, with wave B top and lower wave C in process. If that is correct, then five wave decline should send the Eur/usd back towards previous wave A support; near 1.2870 region in coming months.

This outlook also suggests that Eur/Usd has already reached high of 2011!

Credit: FXstreet.com | |

Terima Kasih Cikgu! Welcome New World!

Posted by Nelayan Forex On 5/15/2011 11:19:00 AM 0 comments

Selamat Hari Guru!

Buat semua individu yang pernah berjasa kepadaku mengajar tulis baca yang pertama sehinggalah detik ini. Jasa dan budi kalian, hanya ALLAH swt sahaja yang layak membalasnya.

Kepada para sifu dan master trainers yang memperkenalkanku kepada dunia lautan Forex, sekalung penghargaan ku hadiahkan di atas semua perkongsian dan bantuan yang dihulurkan. Terima kasih kerana memperkenalkanku ke dunia Forex yang sangat bermakna ini.

Hakikatnya, ilmu dan pengetahuan, segalanya milik ALLAH yang Maha Kuasa.

Namun, keikhlasan dan kesudian kalian mengajar, membimbing dan mendidikku di dalam bidang hebat ini.. hanya doa kesejahteraan dunia & akhirat yang termampu ku panjatkan ke hadratNya sebagai tanda terima kasihku di atas segala yang dihulurkan.

Esok, tanggal 16 Mei, adalah hari 'keramat' buat menghargai para guru & sifu.

Sesungguhnya, esok tanggal 16 Mei juga, adalah tarikh bersejarah buatku apabila menjejak langkah secara rasmi sepenuh masa mengharungi dunia lautan Forex sebagai wadah kerjaya utama menyara diri dan keluarga!

Justeru, doakan kejayaan dan kecemerlanganku wahai para guru dan sifu. Semoga ilmu dan pengetahuan yang dibekalkan, mampu melayakkan aku menerima anugerah terhebat dariNya untuk mengecapi kehidupan baru buat bekalan dunia abadi di akhirat kelak.

Amin Ya Rabbal Alamin.

Welcome My New World!

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Weekly FPA Upcoming Signals Overview: 20110516 - 20

Posted by Nelayan Forex On 5/14/2011 11:34:00 AM 0 comments

Last week, we payed special attention to the AUD employment change which dropped significantly to -22.1K after strong growth in March. The US reported a 0.5% increase in retail sales amidst growing concerns over soaring gas prices and Friday’s Core CPI Report was monitored all week as US economists fear that global inflation would inevitably cross the Atlantic and affect U.S. household budgets.

Here’s what we want to focus on for next week:

1. Tuesday May 17, 2011- 4:30 am- UK CPI y/y

2. Wednesday May 18, 2011- 4:30 am- UK MPC Meeting Minutes

3. Thursday May 19, 2011- 4:30 am- UK Retail Sales m/m

4. Thursday May 19, 2011- 10:00 am- US Existing Home Sales

5. Friday May 20, 2011- 7:00 am- CA Core CPI m/m

6. Friday May 20, 2011- 8:30 am – CA Core Retail Sales m/m

This week, the UK will be releasing its yearly CPI report which will receive heavy attention because its importance in creating central banks’ inflation target. Following that, the MPC meeting Minutes will be released to show votes of the interest rate meeting two weeks ago.

The US housing market hopes to continue with last months’ rise in existing home sales. A strong report could help diminish growing concerns that linger after it was reported that foreclosures rose last month.

We’ll close the week with the Canadian CPI and Retail Sales which are likely to affect the valuation of the CAD amidst volitile commodity trends.

Weekly Currency Index Review: 20110509 - 13

Posted by Nelayan Forex On 5/14/2011 11:30:00 AM 0 comments

Currency Index Review ..

The currency index represents the evolution of a currency relative to the entire forex. The index is the average of one currency compared to others. The chart representation makes it easy to view trends by currency.

Effective Review Period: 5 May 2011 - 13 May 2011
Currencies: USD compared to EUR, GBP & JPY

Credit: Mataf.net | |

Weekly Experts' Forecast: GU, EU, UJ and UChf (20110509 - 13)

Posted by Nelayan Forex On 5/09/2011 12:05:00 AM 0 comments

GBP/USD Comments:
• Anna Coulling: Cable hit resistance in the 1.67 region with a pullback below short term moving averages. However, with deep platform of support below should see a bounce back higher in the short term before sell off longer term.
• GFM Research: Historic congestion in the ranges of 1.6700-1.6850, major bull trend to establish only above 1.6980
• Ilian Yotov: The market's repricing of Bank of England rate hike expectations further out could weigh on the GBP.
• Dr. Sivaraman: A month of drop,sideway moves and regain may be seen
• Yohay Elam: Three soft PMIs show the fragile state of the British economy in the long term.
EUR/USD Comments:
• Anna Coulling: Failure to break 1.50 level coupled with a temporary dollar bounce has seen a pullback in the eur usd. However, dollar recovery expected to be short lived & expect to see re-test of this level in due course.
• GFM Research: Though the long-term trend is intact, major resistance observed in the ranges of 1.3500-1.3200
• Ignacio Albizuri: We find bullish targets but if there is a normal agreement within the United States in order to approve the general budgets it would be normal to observe a reversal in the Dollar Index that is looking for last 3 years minimums. We will expect a change in the trend
• Ilian Yotov: With the Fed staying the course for "extended period", the EUR could remain supported on ECB rate hike expectations, provided the ECB does not close the door to tightening and the market's attention doesn't shift to the debt issues in the Euro-zone.
• Dr. Sivaraman: A month of drop,sideway moves and regain may be seen
• Yohay Elam: Trichet's referral to the exchange rate and his wish for a strong dollar, together with delays in hikes make the first correction. A more significant fall is due when the situation around Greece worsens. Also the US weakness is paradoxically pushing the pair lower.
USD/JPY Comments:
• Anna Coulling: Expect to see BOJ intervene relatively soon with a consequent bounce higher, before market re-establishes control to take it lower once more.
• Ilian Yotov: The perception of Bank of Japan as the last in line to exit its accommodative monetary policy and the threat of another intervention, along with yield differentials and risk appetite, should keep the recently established floor for the USD vs. JPY.
• Dr. Sivaraman: swing and rise moves are expected
• Yohay Elam: Despite the recent falls, the G7 seem countries seem keen on restoring the intervention achievements and pushing the "safe haven" yen lower. The Japanese economy is in a difficult situation.
USD/CHF Comments:
• Anna Coulling: The usd chf continues to plumb the bottom of the chart and is set to stay at this level in the short term. Very expensive coffee in Switzerland when driving through last week!
• GFM Research: USD getting over sold against CHF, short covering may be witnessed in near term
• Ilian Yotov: The multi-year bullish trend of the CHF vs. USD is still strong and only a Fed exit from their current ultra-accommodative monetary policy could reverse it.
• Dr. Sivaraman: swing and rise moves are expected
• Yohay Elam: The ultimate safe haven currency not only enjoys US weakness, but also rising inflation at home. Despite these factors, it will eventually lose some of the hot air it gained, especially if the European debt crisis erupts again.

Keys:
• Bearish: Belief that a particular currency is about to fall in value; understood as a general pessimistic trend about the state of that given currency.
• Bullish: Belief that a particular currency is about to rise in value; understood as a general optimism about the state of that given currency.
• Sideways: A sideways trend manifests when the volume of a currency pair bought and the volume of the same pair sold at a particular price are in balance or nearly in balance.

Credit: FXstreet.com | |

Weekly Currency Index Review: 20110502 - 0506

Posted by Nelayan Forex On 5/09/2011 12:00:00 AM 0 comments

Effective Review Period: 26 April 2011 - 6 May 2011
Currencies: USD compared to EUR, GBP & JPY

Credit: Mataf.net | |

Weekly FPA Upcoming Signals Overview: 20110502 - 06

Posted by Nelayan Forex On 5/02/2011 08:47:00 PM 0 comments

Last week, Euro confidence dropped as inflation at its fastest place in two and a half years. The Federal reserve was also faced with the challenge of diminishing the unwanted effects of inflation. Therefore, Fed Chairman Bernanke announce that interest rates would be kept near zero for an extended period of time as the economy reported weak expansion in the first quarter.

US GDP continued on its slow path to recovery as economists reported a 1.8% increase in the first quarter. Overall, USD and carry trades continued on its bearish momentum in the absence of hawkish remarks from the FOMC.

Here’s what we want to focus on for this week:

1. Monday May 2, 2011- 10:00 am- USD ISM Manufacturing PMI

2. Tuesday May 3, 2011-12:30 am- AUD RBA Rate Statement

3. Tuesday May 3, 2011- 4:30 am- GBP Manufacturing PMI

4. Wednesday May 4, 2011-8:15 am- USD ADP Non Farm Employment Change

5. Wednesday May 4, 2011-10:00 am- USD ISM Non- Manufacturing PMI

6. Wednesday May 4, 2011-9:30pm- AUD Retail Sales m/m

7. Thursday May 5, 2011-4:30am- GBP Services PMI

8. Thursday May 5, 2011-7:00 am- GBP BOE Interest Rate

9. Thursday May 5, 2011-7:45 am- EUR ECB Interest Rate

10. Thursday May 5, 2011-10:00am- CAD Ivey PMI

11. Friday May 6, 2011- 7:00am- CAD Employment Change

12. Friday May 6, 2011- 8:30am-USD Non Farm Employment Change

We want to start the week by paying special attention to Monday’s US ISM Manufacturing report becuase a positive outlook remains on U.S exports as well as gains in manufacturer worker employment. Also , EUR and GBP will announce their interest rate statements. Don’t expect any significant gains in either sector as the ECB and MPC will probably try to hold interest rates as well to counteract the rising concerns about inflation.

Finally, on Friday May 6, The US will report the Non Farm Employment Change. Soft numbers are expected in this release mainly because jobless claims rose above 429K, thus showing an increase in filing activity.

Credit: FPA, Henry Liu | |

Weekly Experts' Forecast: GU, EU, UJ and UChf (20110502 - 06)

Posted by Nelayan Forex On 5/02/2011 08:37:00 PM 0 comments

GBP/USD Comments:
• Ilian Yotov: The GBP could stay supported on Bank of England rate hike expectations, but if the bank disappoints and decides to sit and wait longer, the GBP could see some profit-taking kicking in.
• Mohammed Isah: While we are looking for GBP to retarget the 1.6877 and the 1.7039 levels, its failed rally followed with a shooting star candle formation ( daily chart) is now a concern. Within one to three months, we have a bullish bias on the pair.
• Dr. Sivaraman: Sideways moves and further rise may be seen
• Yohay Elam: With easing inflationary pressures and a weak economy, the pound is likely to drop after the dust from Bernanke will settle.

EUR/USD Comments:
• Valeria Bednarik: Having broke above 1.4600 as long as weekly close above, pair is heading to the 1.51/52 November 2009 highs; immediate strong long term resistance lies @ 1.4950, ahead of mentioned 1.51/52 area. Sovereign debt now, will have to wait.
• Ignacio Albizuri: Amazing trend that allow the price to reach new maximums near 1.50. Powerful retracements can be seen within the next weeks. The Dollar Index it is now in 3 years lows so it could be risky to enter long EURUSD with tight stops
• Ilian Yotov: As the Fed stays the course for "extended period" and with the market anticipating further rate hikes from the European Central Bank, the EUR could remain well-bid ahead of the ECB announcement, provided the market's attention doesn't shift to the debt issues in the Euro-zone.
• Mohammed Isah: Our bias on EUR remains for a recapture of the 1.4902 and 1.5140 levels in the days and weeks ahead. Our overall outlook remains bullish in one to three months.
• Dr. Sivaraman: Good correction may be seen before the next rise
• Yohay Elam: The situation in Greece already weighs on EUR/USD. This is likely to furhter develop, but the timing is unknown. Bernanke's blow to the dollar will contiuen dominating the scene till then.

USD/JPY Comments:
• ecPulse.com: Weekly close above 1.6715 could change our 1 quarter expectations
• Valeria Bednarik: Despite recent bearish strength, pair should hold long term above 0.80 price zone, and attempt a stronger bullish recovery, over the upcoming months; Yen will start losing its safe haven charm before the end of this year.
• Ilian Yotov: The perception of Bank of Japan as the last in line to exit its accommodative monetary policy, along with risk appetite, are helping the USD to stand on its own feet against the JPY. Further strengthening could follow the recent welcomed correction of the USD gains vs. JPY.
• Mohammed Isah: Having halted its recovery and continued to weaken, USDJPY looks to target further losses. We retain our long term bearish call in one to three months.
• Dr. Sivaraman: Swing and rise moves may be seen
• Yohay Elam: The economic impact from the March 11 catastrophe is being seen. Even with an extremely weaker dollar, the yen will be even worse off

USD/CHF Comments:
• ecPulse.com: To confirm the awaited bullish recovery, we need a weekly closing above 0.8795 zones, noting that the consecutive daily closings above 0.8750 will be also positive.
• Valeria Bednarik: With no bottom at sight, pair is meant to extend current bearish trend towards fresh record lows. COT report shows retail traders are strongly long, and unless a change there, no reversal is likely in the cross.
• Ilian Yotov: The multi-year bullish trend of the CHF vs. USD is still strong and only a Fed exit from their current ultra-accommodative monetary policy could reverse it.
• Mohammed Isah: USDCHF remains weak and vulnerable to the downside with the risk of building up further weakness towards the 0.8700/0.8600 levels in the days ahead. We are bearish on the pair in one to three months.
• Dr. Sivaraman: Swing and rise moves may be seen
• Yohay Elam: The ultimate safe haven currency not only enjoys US weakness, but also rising inflation at home. Despite these factors, it will eventually lose some of the hot air it gained, especially if the European debt crisis erupts again.

Keys:
• Bearish: Belief that a particular currency is about to fall in value; understood as a general pessimistic trend about the state of that given currency.
• Bullish: Belief that a particular currency is about to rise in value; understood as a general optimism about the state of that given currency.
• Sideways: A sideways trend manifests when the volume of a currency pair bought and the volume of the same pair sold at a particular price are in balance or nearly in balance.

Credit: FXstreet.com | |